The Half Street Highrise

A Change in Focus

2010-04-26T17:56:00.000-04:00

Just a few weeks ago, I started this blog with no idea where I was going to go with it. After writing a few pieces, I was given an opportunity by Will Yoder over at The Nats Blog to become a guest writer. Since then, I have found the difficulties of maintaining a blog to be greater than I anticipated. Coincidently, The Nats Blog is taking a huge step forward and is on its way to becoming one of the better Nats websites on the internet. So while it is a bit bittersweet for me to say this, I am thrilled to tell you all that I will now become a full-time writer over at Will's site for the foreseeable future. His site will provide me with the opportunity to write about everything that I would want to here, but with a better design and a better blog network. It will also allow for me to be a part of something that has the potential to be great. I will be providing statsitical analysis as well as information on the minor leagues, while occasionally writing on some off the wall topics and pet projects I have been thinking on for some time.

Make sure you check out the blog and while this blog will basically become defunct, I may post a few easter eggs from time to time.

Phil

The Nationals Latin American Presence

2010-03-26T16:23:00.001-04:00

Surprisingly, during the Aroldis Chapman sweepstakes the Nationals made a legitimate offer given their absence in the Latin America market since the Smiley Gonzalez scandal. Besides the player formerly known as Smily (aka Carlos Alvarez), the Nationals have not had a major signing in Latin America. Out of the few low key signings they have made, the only notable names are Jhonathan Solano, Marcos Frias, and Eury Perez. More teams, like Houston and Minnesota, are recognizing the importance of the Latin markets and are refocusing their efforts in those areas, specifically the Dominican Republic. The Nationals, who have placed an importance on developing their farm system, will also need to expand their efforts if they want to be able to eventually compete with the top tier teams. The first signs are encouraging.

This October the Nationals hired former Red Sox Latin America head Johnny DiPuglia to head their own international scouting efforts. Last August, before the DiPuglia hire, the Nationals made five low key signings in the Dominican. These five players were: IF Jean Valdez (16), OF Jose Noberto (18), RHP Cleto Brazoban (17), RHP Videl Paredes (18), and George Rosa (19). The five were scouted by both Dana Brown, now with the Blue Jays, and former Royals scouting director Derek Ladnier. The pick of the litter is Valdez and here is what Baseball America and The Nationals had to say about him:

Baseball America:

Ability to hit for power, though scouts say his swing gets long and he has trouble translating that power into game situations. He has a strong arm, though he’s a below-average runner and will probably move to third base or the outfield.

Nationals:

He is an exceptional hitter who projects as a potential middle-of-the-order bat with power and plate discipline.

His signing was between $350-$450 thousand, while the other signings were around the $100 thousand mark. This means that the Nationals spent about $1 million dollars on Latin American prospects in the last year. Admittedly, if you are going to limit your international signing budget to such a low number, it is a prudent move to go for the group of prospects rather than a single signing (Alvarez costed the Nationals $1.4 million), especially if your organization just got burned by that single prospect. And then there is the costs the Nationals are placing in building their new complex in the Dominican, along with the cost of putting in place a new professional staff.

Besides their pursuit of Chapman and the five signings in the Dominican, the Nationals also pursued Wagner Mateo, a projected five tools center fielder. The Nationals lost out to the Cardinals, who gave Mateo a $3.1 million deal, but St. Louis later voided the deal when the 16 year old failed his physicals because of two previously undisclosed injuries. The Nationals made the right decision in this situation, but Mateo is back on the market and they may be able to make a run at him for a much smaller monetary amount. Chapman was not the only Cuban defector the Nationals missed out on either, they were non-factors in the signings of Jose Iglesias, Adeiny Hechevarria, and Noel Arguelles. Again, the Nationals may have made the prudent choice at this time as these players all got $6+ million, but as ESPN Jose Arangure points out, the cost of Cuban prospects has increased greatly from a year ago and will likely continue to grow.

The Nationals were drenched in the Smiley scandal a year ago. 365 days later, they have refocused their energies in Latin America and appear to doing things right. The moves they have made thus far have been prudent, but smart. They are a great first step, but it can not stop here. The Nationals must now reposition themselves in the market and begin to pursue bigger Latin targets. The time where they can be sign almost any Latin star may be coming to an end with the CBA running out next year and the possibility of adding international stars to the draft. If the Nationals are truly committed to building their farm system, then I would expect to see them become very active in the Caribbean this year (and possibly in East Asia). Mike Rizzo seems to have the right philosophy in regards to the subject and so I leave you with this encouraging statement by Rizzo:

To be a front-line organization you have to consider the international market. That's a big piece of your developmental system. You have to be active in that market. You have to sign players from that market, because the statistics say that almost a third of your players are coming from outside of the domestic draft. So you'd better be active in it. You'd better have the training facility. You have to be in that part of the game to have complete success.

NCAA Tourney Edition

2010-03-16T15:00:00.001-04:00

Sorry folks I have not been able to update lately due to a busy personal schedule and overall lackluster week of spring training for the Nationals. Once the season gets under way, posts will be coming at you in a greater frequency. In the meantime make sure to check out my weekly posts over at the ever expanding The Nats Blog. And as I return to my hole, I leave all you March Madness fans with a little NCAA-themed post:

Through all the excitement and pressure that fills spring training, you can expect some friendly ribbing in the Nats clubhouse in the upcoming weeks as the NCAA tournament kicks underway. Houston takes on Maryland in the first round and I would expect Justin Maxwell to be talking up his team all week to Houston Alum Garret Mock. Other Nationals players that will have their former alma maters going at it in the big dance include (with college, seed #, bracket):

John Lannan ( Sienna, #13 South)
Tyler Walker (California, #8 South)
Adam Dunn (Texas, #5 South)
Stephen Strasburg (San Diego State, #11 Midwest)
Justin Maxwell (Maryland, #4 Midwest)
Garrett Mock (Houston, #13 Midwest)

Washington Minor League Players that will be rooting on teams this March/April:

Jeff Kobernus (California, #8 South)
AJ Morris/Justin Bloxom (Kansas State, #2 West)
Adrian Alaniz (Texas, #5 South)
Dan Lyons (Minnesota, #11 West)
Jeff Mandel/Cory VanAllen (Baylor, #3 South)
Adam Carr (Oklahoma State, #7 Midwest)
Boomer Whiting (Louisville, #9 South)

And in case you were wondering who I have winning it all this year, look no further than the team with the best player in the country in Kentucky and John Wall.

Lannan vs. Utley

2010-03-05T17:06:00.001-05:00

July 26, 2007. After a sudden rise to the major leagues, John Lannan was making his big league debut at Philadelphia's Citizen Bank Park. The young Lannan pitched as well as one could expect in a debut, letting up three runs in 4 innings. In the bottom of the fifth, the nerves kicked in for Lannan. With a perfect 2 for 2 Utley at bat, Lannan lost control of his pitch and hit Utley. Utley strolled to first base and Ryan Howard stepped up. Maybe it was a case of the jitters for Lannan, maybe it was the fact that he had let up a home run to Howard in his previous at-bat, or maybe it was fate, but Lannan plunked Howard too. Hunter Wendelstedt had seen enough and preceded to eject Lannan and then Manny Acta, who for one of the few times in his Washington career showed some fire at a bad call.

With his family watching from the stands, Lannan left the field in disgrace and watched the rest of the game from the locker room (Washington won 7-6). The pitch that hit Utley damaged his wrist and forced him to have surgery, landing him on the DL for 31 days. Lannan would not see Utley again until July 31st of the next year, yet first game Lannan faced Utley would become definitive of the relationship the two would share over the following years.

John Lannan has struggled to get no batter out like he has with Chase Utley over his career. In his three years in the league, Lannan has faced only two batters, Chipper Jones and David Wright, more than Utley (25 PA). In those battles, Lannan has mostly lost, allowing Utley to post a monstrous line of .476/.560/.810. Last season, Lannan seemed intimidated and overmatched by Utley at times and got away from what worked for him in 2008. I watched through some of Lannan's at-bats against Utley and then looked through the pitchF/X and gameday data to determine what worked against Utley and what the problems were.

When Lannan was Successful: Lannan gave Utley nothing but scraps in the strikezone. He pounded Utley inside and made good use his curveball. His slider never came close to the strikezone, but passed by the far corner of the plate in order to entice Utley to swing. Balls that were thrown outside got fouled off, balls that were low and away became ground balls.

Lannan's only strikeout vs. Utley last year came when he attacked him inside

Image from MLBGameday

When Utley was Successful: Lannan left sliders hanging or threw fastballs too high in the strikezone. Utley was able to capitalize off of his mistakes nearly every single time. Lannan tried to get too fine and nibbled around the strikezone. Utley does not even swing at the curve, he just waits for Lannan to slip up with the fastball or slider. Both of Utley's home runs off of Lannan come off of pitches right down the pipe.

-----

As NL East rivals, Lannan's and Utley's paths are sure to cross numerous times in the future. In fact, Lannan will be facing Utley on opening day after he was officially handed the opening day gig by Manager Riggleman today. Facing Utley is no easy task for any pitcher, but for John Lannan in particular it is important that he goes inside often with Utley. His slider can be a good pitch against lefties, but he has to be weary of their placement as Utley feasts on sliders low and away in the strikezone. The ironic part of John Lannan ejection story is that, unlike Utley, he has had success in pitching against Ryan Howard, the other guy he hit that day (.182/.250/.364) and also a lefty. As they are two completely different types of hitters, it would be useless to attempt to look at Howard's at-bats for a way to attack Utley, but it would be interesting none-the-less.

The Two Hole

2010-03-02T19:30:00.006-05:00

Discussion about potential batting orders are a natural occurrence during the spring training period. There are always new guys on the team, others are playing above or below their actual talent levels, and the manager will use a various combination of orders throughout the Grapefruit League competition. For the Nats, the #1, 3, 4, and 5 slots are locked down by Morgan, Zimmerman, Dunn, and Willingham. Who bats second will be the most important spot still open in spring training, with Guzman having the early head start. Using splits and other considerations, let us take a look at the Nationals likely options for the two hole on opening day:

Cristian Guzman:
When batting #2 in 2009: 266 PA, 8 BB, 36 SO, 5 GDP, .286/.310/.393
When batting #2 career: 2819 PA, 114 BB, 372 SO, 36 GDP, .271/.303/.388

He does not have a great on base percentage (.307 career), he no longer has enough speed to steal bases (12 total in the last three seasons), and he does not see many pitches (3.26 Pitches/PA). The one possible reason you would consider Guzman batting second is his contact percentage (and possibly because he can bat from both sides). Among the candidates on this list, Guzman had the highest contact percentage last year:

Guzman - 85.3%
Kennedy - 83.7%
Desmond - 81.8%
Dukes - 73.6%

Old school managers like Riggleman like to try the hit and run often, especially when you have a guy with Morgan's speed leading off. Making contact is an important part of these plays. There is talk from some fans that Guzman can not bat in any other spots in the lineup or else he will be miserable. I do not buy that one second. Despite the fact that Guzman has spent most of his time with the Nationals at the top of the order, his career splits reveal that he has had success batting in the 6 hole, which would be a very suitable spot for him on the current squad. Guzman's contact could be valuable in moving Willingham and Dukes over or even scoring players held up at second or third. The early indications are that Riggleman will in fact bat second, but Guzman is not even guaranteed to make the team at this point.

Adam Kennedy:
When batting #2 in 2009: 83 PA, 7 BB, 8 SO, 1 GDP, .292/.370/.500
When batting #2 in career: 716 PA, 39 BB, 85 SO, 14 GDP, .280/.330/.401

Kennedy spent most of last season batting lead-off for the A's, but is going to find himself in a different spot with the Nats. Out of all the guys in this post, Kennedy has the best chance of being the answer at #2 right now. He had good power (29 2B/11 HR last season), can hit for average, is good for 15-20 stolen bases a season, and can work the count (3.90 pitches/PA). He bats left-handed, so that means the top part of the order would be lefty heavy (Morgan, Kennedy, Dunn). He is not too bad against LHP (.249/.305/.330), but enough so where you would have to consider only using him at #2 in favorable matchups. His contact percentage is barely behind Guzman's, but the power and patience put him as the better option for the top of the order.

Elijah Dukes:
When batting #2 in 2009: 38 PA, 5 BB, 5 SO, 0 GDP, .212//.316/.242
When batting #2 in career: 217 PA, 26 BB, 47 SO, 5 GDP, .250/.350/.410

Two days ago, I took a look at Dukes and his struggles with the breaking ball. With Nyjer Morgan cemented in the #1 spot, there will be a lot of fastballs coming the #2 hitter's way. Given Dukes' problems against the breaking ball, it would be interesting to make a pitcher have to choose between throwing a fastball and having Dukes crush it or ignore the runner and throw a breaking ball in the dirt. He played mostly behind Lastings Milledge/Cristian Guzman last year when he batted second, those guys were rarely on base and were hardly base stealing threats.At this point, Dukes has not shown enough consistency to be considered for a top of the lineup spot, but if "things started to click" (the phrase most associated with Dukes) than Dukes projects to be a great option for the second spot. He would have above average power for a #2 hitter, he has good speed if he can learn how to run the bases properly, and can work the pitcher, especially when there are less breaking balls coming his way. His ability to make contact is poor, making him a liability on any hit and run, and while he sees a good deal of pitches (3.69 pitches/PA), he does not see as many as some people will credit him with. Dukes still has a lot of kinks to work out before he is even considered a good MLB regular, but in time he could develop the traits that would allow him to be an excellent option batting behind Nyjer Morgan.

Ian Desmond:
When batting #2 in MLB: 43 PA, 2 BB, 9 SO, 1 GDP, .300/.333/.425
When batting #2 in MiLB (2009): 121 PA, 13 BB, 22 SO, 0 GDP, .340/.417/.491

Desmond got his first cup of coffee last season and will almost certainly be back with the big league team at some point this season. The majority of his at-bats last season with Washington came in the two hole, but he is still a long ways away from earning the right to bat their on a regular basis. Desmond showed that he could be successful at two in the minors. Desmond had some trouble with changeups and curves last season, but his in-play% for four seam fastballs (22.6%) was second only to Guzman (27.4%). Desmond put up good numbers against both lefties and righties, while having good success with a runner on first (.368/.429/.579). The amount of pitches/PA that he saw (3.69) was close to Dukes, so the kid has some patience. It is not his bat that is holding him back right now, but when his glove does come around, Desmond could find himself batting #2 for the Nationals.

---

Your opinion of who should bat #2 will rely on what type of hitter should be in that slot. A lot of old school managers will want their second hitter to be a high contact guy that can hit the ball to either side of the field. Guzman would fit in this mold, but there are questions whether his numbers will decline even more this year. Other schools of thought want a high OBP guy that can hit at #2, someone like Nick Johnson. None of the guys in consideration even approach Johnson's OBP, but Kennedy is the one who probably comes closest and he can hit. Lastly, their is the way of thinking that I have alluded to already in which you have a guy bat #2 that will make the pitcher think seriously about throwing a fastball with a runner on base. If this is you than a polished Elijah Dukes would probably be your choice.

What seems likely is that Riggleman will start the season with Guzman in the two hole. Kennedy should get a shot when it is against RHP. Dukes is the best choice of the bunch, IF he turns out to be the player everyone is hoping for and Desmond is going to get heavy consideration for the spot once he arrives, but for now he is not much of factor. If I were making the lineups, though, I would have Ryan Zimmerman at #2, but that is never going to happen.

On Dunn and Dingers

2010-03-01T17:59:00.002-05:00

Last off-season, Stan Kasten remarked on how the team was going to have to open up RF for batting practice at Nats Park because of all the balls that would be hit there by recently (at the time) acquired slugger Adam Dunn. These were gladly welcome words to Nationals fans. In the opening year of their new park, and with a team full of hitters that were touted by the Washington front office because of the supposed power that lurked in their bats, the Nationals did not go yard very often. In fact, only the Giants and Twins finished with less homers than the Nationals (117) that season. In the dinger department the team was led by Ryan Zimmerman (14) and Lastings Milledge (14). No one finished with more than 15 HRs. The signing of Adam Dunn brought a guy that had hit 40 home runs per a season for the last five years. And in 2009, right field got a lot more crowded.

image generated by the HitTracker website

Dunn hit 19 home runs in Nationals Park, out of which eleven ended up in the right field bleachers (tip to those that want to try to catch a Dunn HR ball: section 238). 16 of the homers came against righties and 10 of the 11 to right field were against lefties. Dunn ended up with the most home runs in Washington's park (Zimmerman was second with 17) and as the overall leader in home runs for the team for 2009. sing data like wind speed, temperature, altitude, etc. hittracker's website is able to determine the "true" distance of home runs. The record for longest "true" home run in the history of Nationals Park (two years)? You guessed it, Adam Dunn. In an odd entanglement of coincidences, Adam Dunn hit this home run, his 300th career, on the Fourth of July. Below is a trajectory of that milestone home run, thanks to images from hittracker:

Adam Dunn's 300th HR

So what does any of this mean? Not much, but with spring training just starting up there is not much to talk about. It is just fun to keep these types of things in mind, because home runs are one of the more thrilling aspects of the game. The addition of Dunn gave the Nationals a bona fide slugger in the lineup. With the return of Ryan Zimmerman and the addition of Josh Willingham, the Nationals home run totals went up last season, but they still finished in the bottom third of the league in that category. While home runs are not a vital part of the game, guys like Adam Kennedy and Elijah Dukes knocking some out of the park would certainly aid the efforts already put forth by Dunn, Zimm, and Willingham.

While looking into Dunn's home runs at Nationals Park I compiled a list of the top 10 longest "true" distance dingers hit in Nationals Park:

1. Adam Dunn - 4 July 2009 - 458 ft.

2. Ryan Howard - 21 May 2009 - 448 ft.

3. Jayson Werth - 9 September 2009 - 444 ft.

4. Lastings Milledge - 21 June 2008 - 441 ft.

5. Ryan Zimmerman - 1 September 2008 - 440 ft.

6. Wily Mo Pena - 24 June 2008 - 440 ft.

7. Ian Stewart - 17 August 2008 - 439 ft.

8. Ryan Zimmerman - 18 May 2009 - 438 ft.

9. Jason Varitek - 24 June 2009 - 436 ft.

10. Ryan Zimmerman - July 24 2009 - 435 ft.

Rotation Preview

2010-02-22T16:45:00.002-05:00

Pitchers and catchers have reported and spring training is officially underway. The big story so far has been Steven Strasburg's presence in camp, with the ESPN RV stopping through Viera for a story on Sunday. Everybody has been blown away by this kid, but let us not forget he is not the only one competing for a spot on this team. In that spirit I present to you a preview of all the guys that are in contention for the rotation this spring training (Strasburg included):

Jason Marquis

2009 Stats: 216 IP, 4.04 ERA/4.10 FIP, 9.1 H/9, 3.3 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 0.63 HR/9, .291 BABIP

Money Pitch: Slider

Total MLB Service Time: 9.01 years

2010 Rotation Chances: Barring injury, Marquis is guaranteed to be in the rotation and will be in contention with Lannan for the opening day gig. He has four major league pitches, including a plus slider. Much of his success this season will be tied to the Nationals' defense as he is a guy that keeps the ball on the ground (2.03 GB/FB). He is also a very similar pitcher to John Lannan and Craig Stammen, so it is not unreasonable to expect Marquis to be a positive influence on both Lannan and Stammen this season.

John Lannan

2009 Stats: 206.1 IP, 3.88 ERA/4.70 FIP, 9.2 H/9, 3.0 BB/9, 3.9 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, .276 BABIP

Money Pitch: Slider/Curve

Total MLB Service Time: 2.04 years

2010 Rotation Chances: He is a lock. He was drafted by the team in 2006 and made his debut in 2007. Ever since he has been the most reliable pitcher Washington has had to offer. He has good command of the strike zone and can work out of jams. He has a good selection of pitches (sinker, curve, slider, change) and does a great job of locating them all. Now this season he and Marquis have the opportunity to form a formidable 1-2 punch at the front of the Nationals' rotation. Lannan recently switched his agent to Brodie Van Wagenen, the same agent as Ryan Zimmerman, so it will be interesting to see if the Nats can come to an extension agreement this season in order to avoid arbitration with Lannan next year.

Scott Olsen

2009 Stats: 62.2 IP, 6.03 ERA/5.24 FIP, 11.9 H/9, 3.6 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, .348 BABIP

Money Pitch: Slider/Changeup

Total MLB Service Time: 4.10 years

2010 Rotation Chances: Olsen has failed to live up to the expectations the Nationals had for him when they received him in a trade from the Marlins. He struggled for most of the season in 2009 before having season ending labrum surgery. He was DFA'ed and resigned by Washington this off-season. Olsen had some good seasons with the Marlins a few years ago, but he has been losing velocity on his fastball the last few seasons. The drop may be due to mechanical changes Olsen has instituted or may have been early indicators of his injury. If Olsen is unable to regain the speed on his heater, then he will have to maximize the rest of his pitch arsenal in order to remain a major league caliber pitcher (see June 29 vs FLA last season). If Olsen shows he has returned to form in ST, then he will be in the rotation. If not, then his future becomes a lot murkier.

Craig Stammen

2009 Stats: 105.2 IP, 5.11 ERA/4.68 FIP, 9.5 H/9, 2.0 BB/9, 4.1 SO/9, 1.2 HR/9, .282 BABIP

Money Pitch: Slider

Total MLB Service Time: 0.14 years

2010 Rotation Chances: Good. It appears that the Nationals think Stammen pitched well enough last season to earn the #3 spot in the rotation this April. If it was not for bone chips in his elbow and the subsequent surgery, Stammen would have finished out the season in the Nats rotation. He is a back-end of the rotation type of guy with very good control (see 2.0 BB/9). Last season he would start out games like a rock star, then by the fourth inning he would look more like an American Idol wannabe. In statistical terms, by the third time through the order he was having trouble getting people out (.330 BAA and 6 SO vs 100 batters). Like Lannan and Marquis, struggles by the infield defense will mean struggles for Stammen this season. Stammen will still have to prove that he is 100% recovered from a pretty minor surgery, but all indicators point to the #3 spot being his.

Collin Balester

2009 Stats: 30.1 IP, 6.82 ERA/7.45 FIP, 10.1 H/9, 4.2 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 3.0 HR/9, .268 BABIP

Money Pitch: Curveball

Total MLB Service Time: 0.13 years

2010 Rotation Chances: Balester has mostly struggled in his time as Nationals starting pitcher. He has had problems with keeping the ball down and pitching from the stretch. He has good speed on his fastball and has a knee-buckling curve, but lacks another pitch that can be used against major league hitters. Balester is going to end up in the bullpen unless things suddenly start clicking for him as a starter. We predict he loses out to a guy like Garrett Mock or J.D. Martin for the final rotation spot.

Shairon Martis

2009 Stats: 85.2 IP, 5.25 ERA/5.48 FIP, 8.7 H/9, 4.1 BB/9, 2.6 SO/9, 1.2 HR/9, .258

Money Pitch: Slider

Total MLB Service Time: 0.11 years

2010 Rotation Chances: The Nationals can afford to allow Martis, 23, to stay in the minors for a little bit longer as he still has one option year remaining. Martis showed that he had the potential to be a major league starter one day in games against St Louis on May 2 and San Francisco on May 13. He also showed that he needed more seasoning in the minors, especially after he was owned by the Phillies twice last season. He has good all around stuff, but he has to prove he can get out lefties before he will get another big league shot. Also, Steve McCatty hinted that he was dropping his arm slot last season which led to his nibbling. He pitched himself into the rotation last spring and could possibly do it again this year, but look for Martis to start the year in AAA.

J.D. Martin

2009 Stats: 77.0 IP, 4.44 ERA/5.67 FIP, 9.9 H/9, 2.8 BB/9, 4.3 K/9, .283 BABIP
Money Pitch: None, all pitches are average

Total MLB Service Time: 0.08 years

2010 Rotation Chances: Riggleman announced that Martin and Mock were both in competition for the final two rotation spots. After spending most of his career in the Indians farm system, the Nationals signed Martin as a minor league free agent last season and he made his major league debut last July. He does not having overwhelming stuff, all of his pitches are average. His fastball sits around 87-88 MPH and he relies mostly on the location of his pitches to get guys out. Martin could make the rotation, but do not expect him to stay there when guys like Wang and Detwiler return later this summer.

Matt Chico

2009 Stats (AA Harrisburg): 50.1 IP, 4.29 ERA/3.95 FIP, 9.7 H/9, 5.0 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, .329 BABIP

Money Pitch: none, junkballer

Total MLB Service Time: 2.10 years

2010 Rotation Chances: A long shot to make the opening day roster. After nearly a year of recovery from Tommy John surgery, Matt Chico was able to pitch 60 minor league innings last season. This season he is looking to reclaim a spot in the rotation. Chico, much like Martin, has an underwhelming selection of pitches. His ability to get batters out is tied to how well he keeps them off balance and how well he changes the speeds of his pitches. Even when Chico was a regular on the Nationals team in 2007, he did not quite look a guy that could be a starter on a winning team some day. We will see how he does in ST, but Chico will remain a darkhorse to take the last spot in rotation.

Garrett Mock

2009 Stats: 91.1 IP, 5.62 ERA/4.28 FIP, 11.2 H/9, 4.3 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, .361 BABIP

Money Pitch: Changeup

Total MLB Service Time: 1.01 years

2010 Rotation Chances: Mock is a tough call. The Nationals thought his stuff was better suited for the role of a closer last season, but after a failed experiment Mock returned to the Nationals rotation and pitched. Mock has very good strikeout potential with his changeup and curveball, but has struggled with control and walks during his career. He has the talent to pitch in the majors, but he needs to settle down mentally. Rizzo likes Mock and drafted him when he was with Arizona. Struggles against lefties and against batters after the second time through the order. If he pitches well in spring training, he will make the rotation.

Stephen Strasburg

2009 Stats (NCAA SDSU): 109.0 IP, 1.32 ERA, 5.4 H/9, 1.6 BB/9, 16.1 K/9, 0.3 HR/9

Money Pitch: Fastball

Total MLB Service Time: N/A

2010 Rotation Chances: TBA. Strasburg is going to be in the rotation at some point this season, the only question is when. Strasburg has a heater that can touch three digits with wicked movement, a plus sliding curveball ("slurve"), and two other potential pitches in his changeup and two-seamer. Strasburg could struggle under the expectations everyone has placed on him. He could awe Mike Rizzo and Jim Riggleman in spring training and force their hand in putting him in the rotation from day 1. The likely scenario has Strasburg starting the season in the minors as a mere formality and then pitching his way to Washington. Strasburg is a precious piece of "inventory" for the Nationals and they are going to do everything in their power to protect him.

Aaron Thompson

2009 Stats (AA Harrisburg): 32.2 IP, 3.31 ERA/3.75 FIP, 9.0 H/9, 3.0 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, .308 BABIP

Money Pitch: Changeup

Total MLB Service Time: N/A

2010 Rotation Chances: If anything, the Nationals just want to see what kind of stuff Thompson has in ST. It will be a good experience for the guy, but he is going to be back in the minors come April. Depending on how things go for Thompson and the Nationals, AT could be pitching in the big leagues later this year. We predict he will start the season in Syracuse and serve as insurance for the Nationals in the case that injuries become an issue.

Jesse English

2009 Stats (AA Connecticut): 100.2 IP, 4.20 ERA/4.68 FIP, 5.1 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, .295 BABIP

Money Pitch: Changeup

Total MLB Service Time: N/A

2010 Rotation Chances: Extremely slim. A former Giants farmhand, English is a LHP with a good fastball/change combo. He has lost velocity since his impressive debut as a 17-year old prospect in 2002, has changed his mechanics various times over the years, and has yet to play a game above AA in his seven year professional career. English will not make the big league team, but he will get a shot to prove his potential value in spring training and in the minors.

Is Chien-Ming Wang "The Michael Jordan of Taiwan"?

2010-02-19T16:34:00.001-05:00

Chien-Ming Wang was officially introduced as Washington National today in front of members of the media on the field at the National's Space Coast Stadium. The press conference went as most press events do. There was praise for the player's ability. The general manager talked about what a swell guy he is and how much of a positive influence he will be on the clubhouse and other players. Then the player responded how he would like to have a great season and be with the team for a long time. Typical press stuff that means little. But amongst it all were some interesting quotes by General Manager Mike Rizzo.

"Not only did we get a player of his caliber, on the mound and on the field and in the clubhouse, it's also our first foray into that market," Rizzo said. "When your first guy in the market is the most popular player in the history of the country, it's a big coup for us."

I am not going to read too much into this one, but it is certainly encouraging considering some of the moves made by the team this off-season. The far East is a market that remains untouched by the Nationals, excluding their most recent addition, who could greatly increase the Nats exposure in Taiwan. This offseason, Rizzo hired three guys (Clark, DiPuglia, McKeon) that came from clubs that were familiar with the Taiwan prospects, as well Asian baseball in general.

As the game of baseball has become more globalized, the quality of players from foreign markets improves. Those that are able to identify and acquire potential quality players in these markets will be given a leg up on the competition. In the second half of the twentieth century, many baseball clubs were able to greatly improve their teams with additions from the Caribbean and Latin America, much in the same way that teams will soon be able to fortify their teams with players from Japan, South Korea, or Taiwan. In recent years, players like Ichiro Suzuki, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Kuroda, Sin-Soo Choo, Akinori Iwamura, and Chien-Ming Wang have proven that Asian players can be successful in the major leagues.

There are two prospects in Japan right now, Norichika Aoki and Yu Darvish, that are garnering a lot of buzz from ML scouts and could be in the majors in the near future. The Dodgers are probably the most proactive of all the clubs in their East Asia efforts and with good reason. L.A. is host to a very ethnically diverse population. This spring training, the Dodgers will split up their team into two squads, sending one squad to Taiwan for two exhibition games and the other squad to Arizona. Among those going will surely be Kuo Hong-Chih and Hu Chin-Lung, two Taiwanese in the Dodgers system. Kuo was the first Taiwanese high school player to sign a contract with a major league team when the Dodgers inked hi in 2000. Now, teams across baseball have stepped up their scouting efforts in Taiwan and other Asian countries. Many teams have top prospects that were born in Taiwan. Some of these players include: Fu-Te Ni (Tigers), Che-Hsuan Lin (Red Sox), Chih-Hsien Chiang (Red Sox), and Chia-Jen Lo (Astros). They join a growing number of other Asian players in American baseball.

That brings us back to Mike Rizzo's comments today in which called Wang "The Michael Jordan of baseball." This is hardly something Mr. Rizzo came up with, the phrase was once floated at an arbitration hearing by Wang's representatives. Regardless, there is no doubt that Wang is the biggest name in Taiwan baseball right now. He was a stud in Taiwan before he came to America and then once here he played with one of the most recognized franchises in the world. His popularity in Taiwan is so great that it prompted Time magazine to name him one their 100 People of the Year in 2007. Nicknamed "Chine Tsai" by the Taiwanese media, he is a hero to his people, who consider baseball their national sport, and is watched nightly in live or re-run broadcasts of all of his starts. Reporters from Taiwan will surely be following him all season, even while he is rehabbing his shoulder. The Nationals may soon become the preferred team by the Taiwanese. It will surely expand the Nat's fan base. What it means most of all, though, is that the Nationals have finally decided to take that next step in international development. Li Ho Wang!

The Nats Blog

2010-02-17T15:15:00.000-05:00

Starting tomorrow, I will be writing weekly posts for The Nats Blog. Will Yoder runs a great site over there and the site is apart of the Bloguin network. There are some good quality posts and a diverse amount of content. Most recently he has run a Bryce Harper Watch with videos of Harper HRs and 2Bs. I will be continuing to post on this blog, but am grateful to Will for the opportunity to enter his endeavor with him.

Here is the article and here are some follow-up thoughts that did not make the cut:

- Not surprisingly, the Nationals bullpen was also last in FIP last year with 5.00
- Out of 25 blown saves by the pen last year, 3 guys (Hanrahan, Beimel, Villone) accounted for one half
- I look at the combined totals of the projected top seven guys from the bullpen for this upcoming season, but what about the top seven guys from last season? Here is what that seven (based off IP) would have looked like and their combined totals:

1. Tyler Clippard
2. Mike MacDougal
3. Ron Villone
4. Jason Bergmann
5. Joe Beimel
6. Saul Rivera
7. Julian Tavarez

This group made up 61% of the bullpen innings pitched by the Nats last season. Based off of last year's numbers, this group had combined totals of 4.06 ERA, 4.85 BB/9, and 1.49 WHIP. Compare that to what the totals would have been for this year's projected bullpen of 3.86 ERA, 4.12 BB/9, 1.38 WHIP.
- While I was hoping they would completely revamp the bullpen this season, I would not be disappointed in seeing Clippard get another year. He has an excellent changeup, but really needs to cut down the walks. The Nats resigned Villone yesterday to a minor league contract. It seems unfathomable that he will make the cut with this year's crop of guys and more than anything this was just a gesture on the part of Rizzo for his work last year (yeah, that sounded funny as I typed it).

Nats Beat Others to Punch, Secure Wang

2010-02-16T15:19:00.001-05:00

Confirming what many of us have known for the past week, Taiwanese pitcher Chien Ming Wang has signed with the Washington Nationals for the upcoming season. Wang, formerly of the New York Yankees, will not be ready to pitch until sometime in May, but he is a welcome improvement to a rotation that has not had more than one 10 game winners since 2005.

A quick scouting report on Wang for those of you unfamiliar with him:

- SINKER: His money pitch is his sinking fastball. He throws it most of the time (near 80% of the time) and it can reach speeds of up to 96 MPH. The sinker has good horizontal movement and moves towards right handed batter's shins. This is a plus pitch and is needed by Wang in order to pitch at his elite level.
- SECONDARY: Wang also has a slider and change up which he uses about 10% of the time for each pitch. His slider is a good compliment to his sinker and his changeup is a decent pitch at around 10 MPH slower than his fastball. He will also throws a splitter late in counts when he needs an out.
- COMMAND: His command and control are excellent. He is able to locate pitches well and rarely gives up a walk (2.37 career BB/9). For his career, he averages 14.42 pitches/inning (better than anyone on last years Nats squad) and has earned a reputation for being able to go late into his starts with his power still intact. His repertoire and control allow him to maintain a high groundball rate (2.70 career GB/FB) and when he is healthy he will rarely let up the long ball. Wang has always struggled with lefties, but has not done so bad where it kills him.

- INJURY: He sprained his foot in 2008 while running the bases in inter-league play. Then in 2009, as he was just returning to form, Wang had arthroscopic surgery to repair a shoulder capsule and has been sidelined ever since. Needless to say, Wang has not played for much of the last two years and when he has it has been less than what Yankee fans had grown used to him from him. Alex Eisenberg, of Baseball Intellect, has suggested that many of Wang's problems may have been related to problems with his posture as well as timing issues.

What is concerning is that the Nationals continue to fill their projected rotation with groundball pitchers (Marquis, Lannan, Wang), yet their projected infield defense will feature only one gold glover and three guys that could all potentially be worse than average defenders this season. Even if Wang makes it back 100% this season, he will not be fully effective without the support of an above average MI tandem. We will see what happens as spring training approaches, but this will definitely be a situation to keep an eye on.

This was a good signing for the Nationals at the tail end of a mostly successful offseason. If Wang returns to form, then the Nationals have him under control until after the 2011 season. They now have three solid options for the rotation and possibly a fourth if Olsen can come back from injury too. If he does not regain his former greatness, then it was worth the small risk the Nationals are taking to give him a shot. Compare the logic of this risk to the Bowden-inspired risk of guaranteeing a rotation spot to Daniel Cabrera last season and this looks genius. Additionally, the game of baseball is expanding into more and more global markets with East Asia emerging as a great source of talent. As Mark Zuckerman points out, Wang will be only the third Asian player to suit up for the Nats and will be the first to be considered a star in his home country. Signing players like Wang can increase exposure to these budding markets and will increase the likelihood that future players from Asia would be willing to sign with the Nationals. You will find from reading this blog that I am a huge advocate of international scouting/signings and this is a great first step for the Nationals. In the upcoming season, I would like to see them expand their operations in Latin America, Eastern Asia, and even emerging pools like Europe and Austrailia. Expect Wang to have a huge following at spring training, even if he does not pitch an inning.

Hall of Fame Indicators

2010-02-15T16:06:00.001-05:00

This blog is oriented towards basic scouting and advanced statistics, but sometimes within these concepts the details can get a bit blurry. Every now and then I would like to take a look at some of the advanced statistics out there and attempt to discuss them in a way that makes it easier for you, the reader, to understand them. This week I am going to keep it light with a brief explanation and look at Hall of Fame Ink. The reason I selected this specific stat is due to the addition of the first likely hall of famer to the Nationals roster, the recent selection of a former Expo to the Hall, and the retirement of Frank Thomas, all of which will be discussed in this post to help reinforce the explanation.

Hall of Fame Ink is advanced metric devised by Bill James that helps us understand how likely a player is to get in the hall of fame. It does not tell us how good a player is or what he did. It is essentially four counting numbers where points are added to the total for various statistical accomplishments. The four categories are:

1. Black Ink - tells you how often the player was the league leader in various categories. A player can be given up to four points for leading the league in categories that Hall of Fame voters tend to look at most like home runs, strikeouts (for pitchers), batting average, etc. Other categories are assigned point values from 1-4 depending on their importance to voters. For instance, games played in is worth one point, while innings pitched is worth three points. Average hall of fame number for black ink ~ 27.

2. Grey Ink - same as black ink, except it tells you how many times a player was amongst the top 10 in the various categories. Average hall of famer has a grey ink score of ~144.

3. Standards - measures how good a player was over his career rather than single seasons. One point is awarded each time a player reaches certain benchmarks in his career. For example, for each 150 hits over 1500 hits a player earns one point. For each .010 points above an OBP of .300 a player has in his career he is awarded a standards point. Average hall of famer has standards of ~ 50.

4. Monitor - the monitor is like standards, but focuses more on how deserving a player is to be in the hall of fame. It awards points for a list of varied accomplishments like 3,500 career hits (50 points) or winning a gold glove (2 points at C, SS, or 2B/1 point every other position) or being selected an All-Star (3 points for each selection). Points are also given for being apart of playoff teams, with more points given to the more prestigious games. The accomplishments on this list are ones which are common to most of the players in the hall and are probably the best indicator of whether a player will be selected by the voters when he is eligible. Average hall of famer ~100.

If you are interested in seeing the specific break downs of each Hall of Fame statistic then please refer to Baseball-Reference's page on the subject.

Using Andre Dawson, a recent inductee into the Hall, as an example, let us take a look at the practical usage of the Ink/monitor scores. The question is whether Dawson is a hall of famer. His ratings are as follows:

Black Ink - 11
Gray Ink - 164
Standards - 44
Monitor - 118

While he is was well over the average mark for Gray Ink, he had little Black Ink to his name. And while his monitor score was 18 points above the average for a hall of famer, his standards score was 6 points lower than the average. Dawson was never apart of a League Championship team and many considered him simply average for most of his career (low black ink and standards), but he was an 8-time All-Star, and 8-time Gold Glover, and a 4-time Silver Slugger (reflected in his monitor score). He was consistently an MVP candidate throughout the 80s. The Hall of Fame ratings are consistent with what actually happened in the voting. Voters probably thought that Dawson deserved to get into the the Hall, but just not immediately. The Ink numbers indicate the same thing.

Now to look at another guy who joined the Nationals this season, Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez. This is where you have to understand something important about Black Ink/Gray Ink. It does not adjust for positional differences. Positions that typically have lower offensive output like catcher, shortstop, and secondbase suffer in these categories as a result. Pudge never led the league in anything considered in the Gray/Black Ink and has a zero Black Ink rating as a result (37 - Gray). In comparison, Pudge has many awards to his name, has won an MVP, has been in two World Series, and has has amassed an impressive resume of career numbers and achievements. This is shown in his monitor/standards score of 224/56. Pudge might not change the fortunes of the Washington Nationals, but he is a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame.

In case you are wondering, here are the current HOF scores for some of the current Nationals (displayed in this order black ink/gray ink/monitor/standards)

Ryan Zimmerman (1/22/19/16)
Adam Dunn (2/57/53/28)
Jason Marquis (0/20/10/5)
Cristian Guzman (3/14/21/19)

Keep in mind that older players that have played more seasons will have much higher numbers than players just starting out their career. These numbers all mean basically nothing, except when trying to look at a neat little metric to determine if players are deserving of the hall of fame. That and Pudge is the first likely HOF'er to play for the Nats (Alfonso Soriano's numbers 10/60/78/25). These indicators are particularly relevant when considering Frank Thomas' recent retirement. Thomas' HOF indicators (21, 200, 194, 60) tell us that he should be in the HOF and most likely on the first ballot. The numbers also show a bias in the fact that Thomas played DH for much of his career and his lack of contribution to defense is not considered. I believe Thomas should be in the Hall, he was one of the greatest bats of his time. But I also believe, on that same logic, players that are the best gloves of their time (Omar Visquel) need to be voted in first ballot as well.

I hope this post helped some of you understand the HOF indicators, but also feel sorry to indicate to you Nats fans out there that these numbers will be pretty much meaningless for sometime. I am not 100% down with the Pudge signing, but he was once a great player and a lock for the Hall of Fame. Here is hoping to some of that rubs off on the Nationals younger guys.

Washington Nationals Top Pitching Prospects 2010

2010-02-12T14:23:00.001-05:00

Pitchers

1. Stephen Strasburg (21, 2009/1st) - If you have not heard of Stras yet, then you probably have been hiding in a hole somewhere for the last year. There is not much I can say about the guy that you probably do not already know. The Nationals needed to sign him and they did (at the last second). He had some knee problems in Arizona that should cause some alarm, but all signs point to him showing up 100% in Viera for ST. My guess, we see him with Washington sometime in June or July.

2. Drew Storen (22, 2009/1st) - I am just not high on taking a reliever with the 10th overall pick in the draft. Relievers just do not have enough value to merit their selection that early. Despite this, the Nationals bullpen was so bad last year and Storen is a quality enough pitcher for this pick to actually border on reason. Relievers selected in the first round are very often "fast-tracked" meaning that the odds of Storen spending the whole 2010 season in the minors is close to zero. Storen features a fastball that tops out around 96 MPH and a good curveball that has some late bite on it. After getting knocked around in his first two starts with Hagerstown, Storen rebounded and pitched magnificently for the Suns, the P-Nats, and the Senators. His control was impeccable as well (8 walks in 37.1 minor league IP). As he progressed through the ranks, his BB/9 increased and his SO/9 decreased. This is not too alarming as this type of trend is to be expected with the increased quality of competition as well as a very small sample size. In the 13 AFL innings, Storen allowed 16 hits, 1 ER, 3 BB, and struck out 13 batters. These are pleasing numbers to my eyes and they indicate that Storen has the ability to make batters have to beat him. There will not be any Mike MacDougal-esque walks from this kid. I am sure to have lots more on this kid once the season starts.

3. Bradley Meyers (24, 2007/5th) - Meyers is the reigning Nationals Minor League Pitcher of the Year and has sky rocketed up the prospect rankings because of it. His arsenal of pitches is slightly above average and features a 92-94 MPH fastball with sink on it, a plus slider, and a work-in-progress changeup. None of his pitches are an "out pitch," but he works well with what he has. His sinker helps him maintain a good groundball ratio (1.20 last season) and prevent the long ball (0.40 HR/9 for his career). Combined with an FIP of 2.88 and WHIP of 1.03 at all levels last season, Meyers is adding some solid points to his resume. So a guy with great control that is able to keep the ball down and can work well with the pitches he has, sounds like someone I want pitching for my major league team one day.

4. A.J. Morris (23, 2009/4th) - If you believe in the "Verducci Effect" (players under 25 that increase pitch load by more than 30 innings per year are exponentially more likely to get injured the following season) then Morris will scare you [*I will have more on the Verducci Effect next week]. In 2008, Morris pitched 53.2 innings for Kansas State and an additional 53.1 innings for Moses Lake during summer play for a total of 106.3 IP. In 2009, before being drafted, Morris pitched a massive 116.1 innings for K-State and then another 42.2 innings for GCL and Hagerstown (thats 158.3 for those counting at home). That is well beyond the 30 IP increase Verducci warns of. If you think that is concerning, consider this, Morris had pitch counts in excess of 120 pitches on at least six occasions this past season with K-State, including two over 140 pitches. This coupled with only two major league pitches (fastball/slider) has many people wondering if Morris will be best suited in the role of reliever. The good news is that Morris' body has yet to show any negative reaction to the heavy workload. A.J has good strike out potential (8.5 K/9) to go along with decent control (1.7 BB/9). Many will be waiting to see how minor league hitters fare against Morris before they make judgements on his future. If he can develop his changeup into a serviceable professional pitch then he may get the chance to stay a starter.

5. Juan Jaime (22, Dominican) - Jaime is another rare player to come up through the National's Dominican Academy. He has a large frame (6'1, 180 lbs) and reports have his fastball clocked as high 98 MPH. He has the physical traits to be a dominant reliever one day, but reports of inconsistency in his mechanics and with his pitch speeds make are concerning. Additionally, he lacks a true secondary pitch and has been working on his curveball and changeup. Currently, Jaime is being used as a starter (12 starts b/w Vermont and Hagerstown) and the Nationals are probably best served by letting him stick as a starter for a while longer. When starting in his minor league career, he posted periphals of 1.10 WHIP, 11.43 K/9, 0.33 HR/9. As a reliever, all of his peripherals go way up, even his K/9. This is probably due to a low sample size (11.0 IP), but is also food for thought when the Nationals consider his path into the majors.

6. Aaron Thompson (23, Trade-FLA) - Acquired from Florida in the Nick Johnson trade and then added to the 40-man this winter. Thompson, despite being a former 1st rounder, is not someone to get overly excited about. Besides being a lefty, nothing really jumps out at you about him. He played pretty well for Harrisburg last year after the trade (4.02 FIP, 1.30 WHIP) and was added to the 40-man roster due to Rule 5 considerations. I do not know at this point if Washington is looking at him as a left-handed reliever or starter at this point, but it is highly probable that he sees some time with the big league squad at some point this season.

7. Paul Demny (20, 2008/6th) - Demny is what I would consider a power arm. He has a good 4-seamer (92-94 MPH range) that has good movement down in the zone, complimented by an effective 87-88 MPH 2-seamer and a curveball with good spin (he also has a slider). He has a good sized body at 6'2 and 200 lbs. Scouts have questioned Demny's mechanics over the years using words like "sloppy"and "inconsistent." Despite this, Demny is a good pitcher that can be effectively wild and make opposing batters feeling extremely uncomfortable in the box. His numbers for his minor league career: 3.50 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 3.45 BB/9, 9.10 K/9, 0.57 HR/9. I like Demny's potential and think that he profiles as a solid starter for back-end of a major league rotation. He will play most likely start the season with the Potomac Nationals.

8. Atahualpa Severino (25, Dominican) - Another guy that holds a special place in my heart for his part in the Potomac Nationals championship run in 2008. Severino has been in the Nationals organization for some time and has finally started to earn some recognition over the last year and a half. Severino has lively fastball that sits around 92 MPH and can max out at 94 MPH. Like many other pitchers on this list, Severino knows how to keep the ball down, and is one of the best LHRP in the system currently. After being promoted to Harrisburg last season, his K/9 saw a jump from 7.07 to 10.57, while his control suffered a bit. Last season against LHH, Severino only allowed batting average against of .207 and kept the ball on the ground 67% of the time. And he is not that bad against rightys either. He rarely lets up the big hit and works very well under pressure. After being added to the 40-man this offseason, it appears Severino will have one more season to prove he belongs in the Majors.

9. Marcos Frias (21, Dominican) - Frias has been getting tons of love from prospect rankings and Nationals fans alike after completing two successful seasons with the Nats. He went 9-5 for a weak Hagerstown team last year, posting rates of 8.8 H/9, 0.4 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, and a 1.22 WHIP. Additionally, he pitched well against LHB (.257 AVG) and RHB (.251 AVG). Frias is one of four players on my prospect lists from the Nationals Dominican efforts, which is an improvement from years past. Hopefully this is the beginning of a trend for the Nationals after they revamped their international program this past season. As for Frias, I look forward to getting a chance to see him play with Potomac this season and hopefully will have some more detailed information to report on him later in the season.

10. Jeff Mandel (24, 2007/19th) - The Nationals intend to turn Mandel into a reliever and I would not be surprised to see the process begin this season. Mandel does not have the stuff to be a starter, but his 90 MPH sinker and hard slider should help him make it as a reliever. Mandel's pitching repertoire allows him to produce a large amount of ground balls (1.28 GO/FO). He is not going to strike out a lot of guys, but he does not give up many walks and he is not going to get beat very often. It goes without saying that Mandel would require an above average defense behind him to live up to his potential and, unfortunately, defense is not a strong suit of the Nationals organization right now. In the AFL, Mandel pitched 14 innings, giving up 14 hits and 3 runs. He did not allow a home run or give up a walk and struck out 10 batters. Prediction on where he starts the season: reliever with AA Harrisburg.

11. Nathan Karns (22, 2009/12th) - Karns was payed over slot ($225,000) after pitching for Texas Tech and North Carolina St. in college. Karns is another power pitcher that has a fastball which can reach speeds up to 96 MPH. He also has a hard, late-breaking curveball. Through his college career, no one has questioned his ability to strike batters out (57 Ks in 54.1 IP for the Red Raiders last season), but many have expressed concern over his control. He has had a BB/9 of at least 5.0 in each of his three collegiate seasons and there have been rumblings that he might not have the mental toughness to survive in professional baseball. Karns fastball alone got him onto this list, but he will need to develop his game as a whole if he ever wants to see a major league inning. Obviously, Mike Rizzo and company saw something in Karns that made them believe he was worth taking a late-round flier on, so we will wait and see what he does with his minor league squad this season.

12. Evan Bronson (23, 2009/29th) - A 6'3 left-handed reliever with underwhelming stuff. Bronson is a converted starter that is able to change the speeds of his pitches well, but has nothing that could overpower batters. In 49.1 innings for Vermont last season he allowed only 3 ER and 3 BB while striking out 38. He pitched well against righties and lefties and appears ready for some movement up the Nationals farm ladder. Look for him to be fast-tracked if he continues to pitch this well for Hagerstown or Potomac.

13. Brandon King (19, 2009/27th) - A late-round pick that the Nationals wisely payed over slot for ($100,000). He was ranked as the 15th best draft prospect from the Mid-Atlantic region by Baseball America. King is a 6'4 Righty that made a brief showing in the GCL last year after he signed. 8 games later, I had a very favorable opinion of the kid. Let me just throw out some numbers from his GCL experiences: 2.97 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 7.99 K/9, 0.28 HR/9, 1.81 GO/FO. What do they mean? King pitched well, did not allow many walks or hits, struck out a good portion of the batters he faced, while keeping the ball low in the strikezone. Should you start searching for Brandon King baseball cards? No, not yet. All his performance from last year means is that the Nationals took a good risk on signing King and that he will probably start next year in Class A Short Season.

14. Jack McGeary (21, 2007/6th) - McGeary was considered a top draft talent back in 2007 whose stock fell because of a supposed strong commitment to Stanford. The Nationals drafted him in the 6th round and ponied up $1.8 million to sign him. As part of the deal, the Nationals allowed him to attend (and paid for) classes at Stanford and then join the team at their completion. This past season was the first year in which McGeary focused solely on baseball. Hype does not make a baseball player, though, and McGeary has largely been a bust for most of his time with Washington. At times, it seems as though he has the makings of middle of the rotation starter, but then he goes out and can barely pitch against rookies. His curveball is a plus pitch and it is a beauty. He also has a fairly good change. It is fastball with almost no life that is problematic and part of the reason batters have a field day off of him every few starts. His control is horrendous at times and is reflected in his 6.62 BB/9 and 1.76 WHIP. You are probably wondering why he even deserves to make a top prospect list. His curve and change are major league pitches and with some work his fastball might not kill him on the mound. He is excellent at inducing the ground ball (1.27 GO/FO this season, 2.22 GO/FO last season), is still quite young at 21, and pitched over 100 innings for the first time in his career last season. The amount of money the Nationals threw at McGeary will provide him more opportunities than other less heralded picks, but this season is key for McGeary to prove that he was worth the 1.8 mil.

15. Graham Hicks (20, 2008/4th) - A tall (6'5) lefty that can throw some heat is an easy way for any scout to get excited. Hicks was dominant against LHB (3.25 FIP/1.04 WHIP) this season with GCL/Vermont and had little problem pitching from the stretch. His major issues came against RHB and with men on. The first problem can be adjusted over time, the second seems more of a mental issue. Overall, he did not put up eye-popping numbers, but there is a lot to like about this kid. He kept the ball in the park last season (0.67 HR/9, 0 HR vs LHB). He has a projectable body that will fill out some more, most likely resulting in some extra heat on his fastball (already around 91 MPH). Add to this the fact that he was drafted with four pitches (fastball, slider, curve, change), two of which are already well-developed, and you have a pitcher that in all likelihood will experience somewhat of a breakout this season.

* This list could have gone some different ways, especially in the 10-15 range. Some other pitchers I considered: Tom Milone, Josh Wilkie, Brad Peacock, Taylor Jordan, Erik Arnesen, and Josh Smoker

Washington Nationals Top Position Player Prospects 2010

2010-02-10T13:45:00.001-05:00

With Spring Training fast approaching, things are starting to slow down in terms of player movement. Just for the hell of it, I thought I'd post my top 30 (15 pitchers, 15 position players) rankings of the Nationals farm system. I should take a second to address the issue of prospects as a whole before I delve into the lists.

Drafting prospects is far from an exact science and, much like the game of baseball, it is a game of failure. Out of about 50 some players drafted by each team every year, a team would be more than happy to have five of them contribute to the major league roster someday. Many of these players drafted are kids straight out of high school that will not have the benefit of getting slapped around (and learning from it) in the college leagues; they have to do this in the minors. Oftentimes players are drafted because of their ability in one or two specific areas with the club hoping that they will be develop in the areas they skills they are lacking. That is what the minor leagues are about, though, development. At any one time a player in the minors could be working specifically on one facet of his game. With the dearth of reporting on minor league players/teams, it is hard to know exactly what the causes for each player not performing to expectations might be. What I am getting at is that players might show poor statistics for 3 or 4 years in the minors, but due to age and development factors they should not be considered "busts" (yet). That is not to say we should not be worried with highly touted players that seriously underperform. We just need to keep in mind that there more than just the numbers. So without further adieu here is my position players list, to be followed by the pitchers list in the near future...

Batters

1. Derek Norris (21, C, 2007/4th) - The Nationals minor league hitter of the year is coming off a breakout season that has many considering him one of the best prospects in the organization. He was amongst the South-Atlantic League's leaders in TB, 2B, HR, RBI. He put up a monster line of .286/.413/.513 at Hagerstown and was one of the only consistent offensive producers on the team last year. The only weak area of his offensive game is the strikeouts (111 last year), but with an eye like his it would be easy fathom this number dropping as he gains more pro experience. His bat is going to get him to the majors at some point, but what position he will play is still up in the air. He has struggled behind the plate after playing 3B for much of his HS career. His game-calling and blocking skills (28 passed balls in 2009) are well below average, but he does have a rocket of an arm (almost 50% CS). Norris is still very young and should have another year or two to prove he belongs behind the plate before the Nationals contemplate moving him. If he is moved, my guess is that he ends up in RF. He was supposed to play in the AFL this fall, but sustained an injury and returned home to rehab for the off season. He will be in Viera for ST.

2. Danny Espinosa (23, SS, 2008/3rd) - After having the opportunity to watch Espinosa play a few times for Potomac last season, all I can say is wow this kid can play some defense. He might be the best defender currently in the system and that is no surprise considering his pedigree (Long Beach St CC). He was the Nationals representative in the Futures game last year (Martis was the representative in 2008) and is held in extremely high regard by the Nats FO. At this point his glove is ML ready, but his bat still lags slighly behind. Do not get me wrong, Espinosa can hit. He hit 31 doubles and 17 home runs for Potomac last season and went through several hot streaks where he was seeing the ball as well as anyone in the league. Like Norris, he has a very good eye but can struggle with strikeouts from time to time (129:73 SO:BB). His main issue last season was striking out with two strikes, which seems to be a mental hump he needs to get over. Despite this, if I had to pick one guy in the system that I absolutely thought was going to be a major league player one day, I would put my money on Espinosa.

3. Chris Marrero (21, 1B, 2006/1st) - I will have to tell you, I saw this kid play a bunch of times at Pfitzner and, boy, does he have a clutch bat. Unfortunately, an injury derailed his career last season. He made a good comeback with Potomac this year (.287/.360/.464) and earned the right to finish up the season with Harrisburg. In the AFL he showed why he was one of the top prospects in the organization with his bat. He has good driving power and can hit the gaps when he needs to, giving him the potential to be a 20 HR/40 2B guy in the big leagues one day. What has held him back, though, has been his defense. Too many bad plays, miscues at the bag, and errors have many people questioning whether Marrero will be able to stick at 1B and the NL for that matter. Regardless of what his future has in store for him, look for Marrero to mash the ball at Harrisburg and, most likely, Syracuse.

4. Michael Burgess (21, OF, 2007/1st) - This guy is a very interesting prospect. Burgess has amazing power (43 HRs the last two seasons), especially considering his size (5'11), has a cannon of an arm (future RF), has deceptive speed (12 SB last year), and he draws a good amount of walks. He sounds like a great prospect if you leave out his two biggest weaknesses, left-handed pitchers and strikeouts. In his career, Burgess is .226/.309/.356 against LHP. It would not be so bad if he had success against RHP, but those numbers are exactly stellar either (.266/.306/.503). He is your typical feast or famine type of hitter. He is going to crank the pitch or strike out, with the occasional walk in between. The strikeouts, which many people will attribute to the long looping swing he uses, are much too abundant. He is good for about a strikeout every 4 at-bats, which if you have ever watched baseball you would know, is very damaging to a team's lineup. What probably needs to happen is Burgess sitting down one of the Nats hitting instructors and figuring out how to compact his swing a bit. By doing this, though, the Nationals may risk losing some of the power Burgess is able to generate using this swing. The other (or additional) option is for Burgess to work on pitch recognition. Burgess has always been one of my favorite players in the farm system and I will never forget his performance in the P-Nats playoffs last year (minus getting ejected because of a bad strike call). Burgess is still a long ways from being a ML-caliber player, but at age 21 the Nationals can afford to allow Mike a few more years to develop.

5. Destin Hood (20, OF, 2008/2nd) - Hood is one of those "five-tool" guys that you always hears about. He has all the athletic ability to become one of those guys, it is just a matter of him developing his abilities into skills. After showcasing some serious power (.614 SLG) in Florida, Hood was bumped up to Vermont for the second half of the season. It was in the NY-Penn league where signs of deficiency began to show as he struggled to hit against LHP (.194/.256/.250 vs. LHP). His batting eye may need a bit of work, also, after he put up a SO:BB ratio of 64:18 for 2009. Some growing pains should be expected with Hood, as this is the first season he has dedicated to baseball after playing football most of his youth. If he can learn to work the count and figure out how to hit lefties, Hood would be poised to become a star player one day. If he can not, then he may be facing a path similar to Burgess.

6. Ian Desmond (25, SS, 2004/3rd) - Desmond made his Washington Nationals debut on September 10 of 2009, but did not play enough games to be considered a rookie. After spending most of his years within the system trying to live up to Jim Bowden's hype ("the next Derek Jeter"), Desmond appears to finally have found his groove. I will admit that I have mixed feelings "Lil' Jeter" after watching him for so many years on our farm teams. At times he would make spectacular plays that would make you drop to the ground, other times his defensive play would make you question what he was doing playing baseball. His bat seemed to take a Rip Van Winkle type slumber for many years, until this past season he exploded with Harrisburg (.306/.372/.494) and then Syracuse (.354/.428/.461). Whatever the reason for this sudden surge, whether it be growth spurt, proper instruction, what have you, Desmond continued to mash even at the highest level when called upon. His BABIP in the minors predicted a drop in his production, but no such thing has occurred yet. If there was one thing to nitpick about in his offensive game last year, it would be the strikeouts (oftentimes these drop with ML experience). It was smart for the Nationals to not rely on Desmond as the SS for the entire year, because it is very possible that last year was a fluke for him. It is also within the realm of possibility that things finally came together for the kid and that Nationals fans could be hearing him name on a more regular basis in the not-so-distant future.

7. Jeff Kobernus (21, 2B, 2009/2nd) - Kobernus suffered a knee injury slightly after signing with the Nationals. He only had 41 at-bats last season, in which he only had 9 hits. Despite not playing much, Kobernus is still one of the top position player prospects for the Nats, based off of his draft position and potential. At UC-Berkley, Kobernus showed that he had good power for a second baseman, has a decent eye, and has very good speed, making him a prime candidate for a top of the order type in the future. Much like Espinosa, his defense is further ahead of his bat, which the Nationals are expecting to develop as he matures. I do not have much more to say about the guy at this point, but I will be watching him closely at Vermont/Hagerstown this year to see what he has to offer as a pro.

8. Eury Perez (19, OF, Dominican) - Eury Perez is pretty much the only international bat worth noting in the Nationals organization. After two seasons putting up pretty numbers for the DSL Nats, Perez was rewarded with a stint in the GCL and he did not disappoint. He projects as a solid contact hitter with ample speed and great outfield defense. It would not surprise me to see his line of .381/.443/.503 drop off as he progresses through the minor league ranks. He could also work on his baserunning, as he was thrown out 8 of 24 times last season after only getting caught 6/34 in the DSL the season before. Reports are that he has the skills to play CF. If his bat holds up, he could be a key component to the ML roster one day for the team from Washington. At 19 years old and coming off a season where he was named the Topps GCL player of the year, Perez is easily one of the most interesting prospects that Nats have and hopefully is the first of many international players to rise through the ranks.

9. J.P. Ramirez (20, OF, 2008/15th) - I was ecstatic when the Nationals were able to sign Ramirez after they took him in the 15th round of the 2008 draft. Ramirez was considered one of the best HS hitting prospects, but fell because of worries over his bonus demands (the Nats ended up doling out $1 mil for him). Despite this, Ramirez did struggle in his first season and left many observers with questions about his future. He struggled mightily against LHP last year and his power is still developing as his body finishes maturing. Still, he is a good contact hitter that can shoot the gaps and he has decent speed that allows him to extend singles to doubles and doubles to triples. Reports on his defense were mixed, but he is currently projecting as a corner OF. Look for Ramirez to make major strides in the next two seasons and it would not be surprising to see him crack the top 5 in the future. Ramirez will be in Vermont or Hagerstown this year.

10. Justin Maxwell (26, OF, 2005/4th) - Justin Maxwell was a typical Jim Bowden pick. He was drafted because of his physical ability and potential, but never quite lived up to all the hype. I hesitated to even include him on this list because of his major league experience. At this point, Maxwell's only real value is as a defensive outfielder (amazing catch versus Baltimore anyone?). He will not be a regular because 1.) he can not hit for a decent average and 2.) he just strikes out way too much. His upside includes a bat with above average power and incredible speed in the outfield/on the basepaths. I could see a possibility of him one day platooning in the OF, in part because of his line against LHP (.286/.352/.429), but that is about the ceiling on where Maxwell can go. Another slight against him is supposed inability to stay healthy throughout his career.

11. J.R. Higley (21, OF, 2008/9th) - The Nationals have a fairly solid group of hitters in the top 10, but after them there is a serious drop off. The guys 10+ are most likely AAAA type of guys, if they can even make it that far. Higley is one of my favorite dark horse prospects and if his body fills out a little bit more he could be a possible major leaguer one day. He has good defensive speed and a great arm, meaning that he can play any three of the outfield positions. He had an excellent batting eye in college, but that has diminished quite a bit during his time in the minors. His power is below average and he should be viewed mostly as a contact hitter nowadays. Despite good speed, he is not the best of baserunners (6 SB/6 CS last season). Higley might not even belong on this list, but there is something in him that makes me believe he has not been playing up to par in the last two years.

12. Stephen Lombardozzi (21, IF, 2008/19th) - Along with Norris and Moore, was one of the only sources of production at Hagerstown last year (.296/.375/.395). A switch-hitter with good plate discipline, Lombardozzi could find himself as a bottom of the order big leaguer one day, with the more likely possibility being utility infielder (2B/SS). He does not have great power, but he does can hit doubles with the best of them. His splits are good from both sides (.292 vs. .298) of the plate and he is a guy that will hit for average most years. Lombardozzi's name is not the most well known, but another productive season or two should put him on a lot more people's radars.

13. Tyler Moore (23, 1B, 2008/16th) - Moore's name is one that you do not hear very often mentioned in relation to the Nats. He was an unheralded pick out of Mississippi St. who spent most of his first professional season adjusting to the increased quality of pitching. A year later, in 2009, Moore got the spot as Hagerstown everyday 1B and he did not disappoint. He ranked in the SAL's top 10 in many different offensive categories, including 3rd in RBIs. He is able to drive in runners (.311 with RISP), is a great guy to have up at the plate for a sacrifice fly, and can hit LHP/RHP. His problems: strikes out too much, everything he hits is in the air, and he is a bit old to put too much stake in his Hagerstown numbers. He most closely resembles another 2009 Nationals farmhand, Brad Eldred, which means that his most likely career prospects are starting first baseman at Syracuse.

14. Adrian Nieto (20, C, 2008/5th) - The Nationals paid overslot in 2008 to ensure their fifth round pick, who was projected to go much earlier, would play for their minor league teams. Despite the buzz around this kid, he has pretty much been a statistical disappointment. He has not yet developed the power many expected him to have and has only hit 9 doubles and 0 HR in his 50 games played with the organization. He has yet to hit over .230 in any pro season and probably his only saving grace is that he has maintained a good eye at the plate (32 K:22 BB, .322 OBP). His discipline numbers are not great, but are also not that bad considering he has not been hitting much at all. Nieto is still very young, has been recovering from an elbow injury he suffered in HS, and was just playing his first full season as a pro. I still think he has a ton of potential and believe that this year will be a measuring stick of his potential for the future.

15. Greg Veloz (21, 2B, Trade-NYM) - The Nats got Veloz in a deal that sent Anderson Hernandez back to the Mets this year. What baffled me about that trade was Hernandez was traded for a player that resembled a former National.... Anderson Hernandez. We are talking about a great defensive second baseman (he has the arm, the range, and the glove) with tons of speed. He can be a pretty good contact hitter batting as a lefty against RHP. These are his positive attributes. As for his negative qualities, he has almost no chance of becoming a top of the order guy. In 1569 career minor league plate appearances Veloz has a total of 123 walks! For those of you that do not know, that is pathetic. On top of that, he does not play any position other than 2B, limiting his utility appeal, he has no power whatsoever, and he does not have the bat to play on a MLB squad. A lot of things are going to have to click for this guy for him to figure into the Nationals future.

*Note: the format of info in the parenthesis is as follows (age as of opening day 2010, position, year drafted/round drafted)

UP NEXT: The Nationals Top 15 Pitching Prospects

The Launch Post

2010-02-08T22:54:00.000-05:00

...and then Mike Rizzo kissed the frog and it turned into a winning baseball team. Ok, so maybe the fairy tale ending is a bit over the top in regards to the Washington National's organization, but almost no fan can deny that this offseason had a less bitter taste to it than those of offseasons past. Jim Bowden was notorious for blowing cash on insane contract renewals (Austin Kearns and Dmitri Young were the main culprits) and then using what was left to search the salvage yard for anything with a pulse (ahem Daniel Cabrera). After a messy scandal involving the Nationals Dominican operations, Bowden was shown the door and Mike Rizzo emerged as the top candidate for his spot.

Rizzo started as a scout like his pops and rose through the ranks in the Diamondback's organization as a talent evaluator. His experience in this area is going to be vital, especially to a team that has held high draft picks in each of their drafts in the last half-decade, including the first pick last year and this upcoming year. He started the long process of overhauling this team last season and has continued into the winter. The process began with a revamping of the front office with some of the most experienced and respected minds in the game (Roy Clark, Davey Johnson, etc.). For my first post I would like to take a look at some of the signings Rizzo has made thus far.

KEY PICKUPS THIS OFFSEASON:
Jason Marquis (SP) - With 7 wins this season John Lannan will become the franchise's* all-time leader in wins. With 27 wins, Jason Marquis could take that honor. The point here, of course, is that the Nationals have always been missing a key component of their club, pitching. The signing of a guy like Marquis is a step that should have been taken 5 years ago, especially when considering that some of the best pitchers this organization has thrown out there include the likes of Livan Hernandez, Tony Armas, and Tim Redding. Look, Marquis might not be an "All-Star" ever again in his career, but he is easily one of (if not) the best arms that has come to Washington.

Marquis was statistically better than all of the Nats pitchers last year with the possible exception of John Lannan. In fact, Marquis is much like Lannan, a guy that does not have overpowering stuff (90 MPH fastball with good secondary slider), but that keeps the ball down (1.23 GB/FB ratio in 2009) and is efficient (3.52 P/PA vs. 3.81 league average). He brings the likelihood of 200 IP to a team that had only two pitchers surpass 100 IP. Then there is always the "veteran-mentor" attribute he is likely to bring to a very young and very raw pitching staff. If the mentor label holds any truth at all, he will be a very positive influence on two similar pitchers already on the staff, Lannan and Craig Stammen. And even though he was snubbed during the post-season, some people will say that he is a "winner." So a reliable, ground ball pitcher, supposedly high character guy who is probably good for around 200 innings sounds like a major upgrade for the staff of last year. Marquis is far from a cure-all and is most likely around for only the duration of his two year contract, but for the first time in the history of DC baseball I am satisfied with at least two of the pitchers expected to be in the opening day rotation.

* A quick note about how this blog will handle the Washington franchise. A lot of purists like to include the Montreal Expo's history with the National's due to the fact that DC's team was relocated from the Canadian city. While this may true, as a Washington Nationals purist, I have no interest in the Expos. Through what this franchise had to endure under MLB-ownership it seems proper to consider the Nationals as unique to the Expos. I apologize in advance to all the former-Expo fans and purists in the crowd.

Adam Kennedy (2B) - Bowden declared that he had found the Nats "Second baseman of the future" in 2008 when the Nats acquired Emilio Bonifacio from Arizona. Bonifacio did not last on the team until the end of the year. In 2009, the Nats relied on a combination of Ronnie Belliard, Anderson Hernandez, and Alberto Gonzalez. Belliard was traded to the Dodgers and Hernandez was traded back to the Mets, with the net gain from the two being two younger guys (Victor Garate and Greg Veloz) that will probably not end up being anything better than fringe major league players. Gonzalez has pretty much played himself out a spot, leaving the Nats considering moving the aging Cristian Guzman to 2B with Ian Desmond (aka "The Next A-Rod") playing the 6. The Nats went after Orlando Hudson for the second year in a row and for the second year in a row they were rebuked, this time with Hudson bolting for Minnesota. The Nationals immediately turned their sights to Adam Kennedy and within hours he was the Nationals 2B for 2010.

The signing is low risk and the team has the choice of using an option on Kennedy next season for 2 million $. Kennedy should solidify the 2B position for at least this year, but Nats fans should have some concerns in regards to the former ALCS MVP. Many 2B tend to experience a large drop-off in their range right around the age of 34; Kennedy reaches that age this season. Kennedy was off-key defensively last year, posting career lows in fielding % (.967), double plays turned (28), range factor (4.2), plus/minus (-10) and UZR (-5.6). He has had one good defensive season in the last four years and his range will most likely decline some more this year. Add to this the fact that Tony LaRussa urged the Cardinals to cut the guy, an ugly swing, and past reports of poor conditioning, the idea that Kennedy is an ideal solution for the Nats becomes less certain. Rizzo and the Nationals are gambling that last year was a fluke at 2B for AK (not to be confused with Austin Kearns), but age-related research, defensive metric trends, and odds make improvement seem unlikely. So, the burning question is "did the Nationals improve with the addition of Kennedy?"

And this answer is easy, YES. I have Kennedy down for about 110-120 starts at 2B this season for the Nationals (keep in mind he has not started more than 80 games at 2B since 2006). Last year's assortment of Hernandez/Belliard/Gonzalez combined for 133 starts at second. Defensively speaking, Kennedy is an upgrade over Belliard and Gonzalez. For all the heat Belliard took last year, he really was not all that bad in field (posted a 2.2 UZR) and fit perfectly into the UIF/PH role that he would have been used as in a perfect world. Unfortunately, Belliard never seemed to get his glove and bat going at the same time and was traded to LA when his bat finally caught fire. The other guy who did play better defense than AK last year, Anderson '360' Hernandez, was a guy who was extremely deficient with the bat (.251/.310/.320 in 255 PA). This is where Kennedy really stands apart from these guys, with the wood. None of the 2B from last year had a wBOA above .300 (~.330 is average), Belliard with .297 was the highest of the bunch. Accordingly, all three of these guys had - wRAA numbers. Kennedy experienced somewhat of an offensive resurgence last season, posting a .289/.348/.410 line, one of the best of his career. Just the fact that Kennedy's OBP had 38 points more than the best of last year's bunch (AH - .310) makes me feel good about this signing.

It would be great if AK can post the same type of offensive numbers as he did last year, while simultaneously returning to form with his glove, but this seems like hoping for too much. With Jeff Kobernus as the only 2B prospect worth noting in the system, it seems likely that the Nats will be relying on AK or another stop gap next year. This signing will live up to expectations if Kennedy: a.) plays average defense, b.) contributes solid support as a bottom of the order hitter (lineup discussion will be another day), and c.) provides stability at a position that has been constantly in-flux within this organization. Kennedy is not the type of player that would be starting on a Series contender, but he also is not a AAAA'er and there is some sign of relief in that sentence.

Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez (C) - As many of you will soon learn, I am a big fan of Jesus Flores. I have liked everything I have seen from him and still believe the potential is there for him to be an everyday catcher in this league. Having said that (for all you Curb Your Enthusiasm fans), Flores has not been able to stay on the field and has left the Nationals to field guys like Wil Nieves, Josh Bard, and Paul Lo Duca as their everyday face behind the plate. Flores has played a total of 102 games the past two seasons (Nieves has played 140 in this time span). If Flores is healthy and able to play then he has to be the guy. History, though, gives the Nats FO a lesson in warnings and necessitated the signing of a veteran catcher who could fill in if Flores was to go down again. Enter Pudge.

I can agree with the general consensus that Pudge was signed for more than he was worth (2 years, $6 mil); there were other younger guys out there (Torrealba, Barajas, Redmond) that could have done some of the same things as I-Rod, but for less money. Then there is the elephant in the room to consider, Pudge's age (38 this season). Sharp downturns in his AVG, OBP, and SLG have raised some red flags, most likely connected to his increasing age. Pudge has always been somewhat of a free swinger (57.9 Swing% vs Lg. Avg of 45.2%) and his situational hitting has been called into question more than once, but he can still hit the ball almost anywhere on the field and he still has that clutch factor that helped make his name.

Where the Nationals found most value with Pudge, though, was his defense and, wait for it, "veteran leadership." Pudge's arm still remains one of the most feared foes of Major League base runners. His 35% CS was notably better than Bard and Nieves, yet significantly lower than his career average of 46% CS. There has also been reports over the years that Rodriguez has started to call too many fastballs in order to get the runners out. I wonder how that will help the development of the young pitchers on the staff? I-Rod is an upgrade over the Nieves/Bards of yesteryear and as long as he is playing less than 80 games he should play around replacement level with the added perk of his status as "mentor."

Matt Capps (RP) - One name gave Nationals fans a headache more than any other last year, Joel Hanrahan. After watching Hanrahan toil in the closer's role after trading Jon Rauch in 2008, Jim Bowden/Manny Acta decided that he had done enough to earn the job for 2009, despite shaky performances in the 9th, 4 blown saves, and an IS% of 47%. Thus began the nightmare that was 2009's bullpen. Here follows a list of pitchers that gave the National's closer position a whirl last season:

1. Joel Hanrahan
2. Joe Beimel
3. Julian Tavarez
4. Ron Villone
5. Jorge Sosa
6. Logan Kensing
7. Kip Wells
8. Garrett Mock
9. Mike MacDougal

Wow, just looking at that list makes me want to cry myself to sleep tonight. I am sure I could figure it out if I sat down and mathed it out, but I suppose the bullpen probably lost us 25-30 games last year. If there is one aspect of this team that Mike Rizzo has acted immediately and thoroughly on, it would be the bullpen. He did his best to patch it up last year, but finding serviceable relievers past June is an almost impossible task. He did manage to swing for Sean Burnett, but his real mastery emerged during the winter meetings. He traded what was to be a useless Rule V pick for Brian Bruney, a reliever that will compete for the set-up job. He then signed a slew of cheap guys to non-guaranteed contracts, from which will emerge one or two guys that could be useful to us this year. I would assume guys like Jason Bergmann and Tyler Clippard will be fighting for their jobs too this spring.

But the best move of them all was the signing of Matt Capps. Capps had a rough 2009 with the Pirates, much of which can be attributed to a large rise in his HR/9 and BB/9, as well as a 1.66 WHIP. The Nationals believe that he will return to his 2008 form (3.02 ERA/0.99 WHIP/21 Saves) and I believe they are correct to assume so. As Jack Moore of FanGraphs has pointed out, Capps experienced increases in the velocity of all of his pitches last season. Most notably, his changeup sped up from 84.6 MPH to 87.1 MPH. The average distance between his fastball and changeup for his career of 8.5 MPH now sat at a difference of 6.5 MPH. It is no surprise that the effectiveness of the pitch dropped as well. Moore also points to a .370 BABIP as a sign that Capps is most likely headed towards a rebound season. I agree with everything Mr. Moore has to say. Perhaps Steve McCatty can get Capps to slow down his changeup or better yet, maybe Pudge or Marquis can mentor him on the subject. Either way, the Nationals are going into the season with a qualified closer at the back of the pen along with a bunch of other guys that actually belong there. Huh?

Instead of signing a former juicer, they got a future hall of famer. Instead of signing a bargain-priced thrower, they inked a guy that does not have the MLB record for most wild pitches in a game. Instead of standing for 'committee' the C once again stands for 'closer'. Instead of "2B of the future," we get a solid stopgap veteran without all the fanfare. Outstanding offseason? Far from it, but it is a huge step in the direction of respectability. And aside from wins, that is what this team needs more than anything at this moment.

NEXT UP: A look at the status of the Nationals Farm System

The Half Street Highrise

A Change in Focus

The Nationals Latin American Presence

NCAA Tourney Edition

Lannan vs. Utley

The Two Hole

On Dunn and Dingers

Rotation Preview

Is Chien-Ming Wang "The Michael Jordan of Taiwan"?

Top Prospects Link

The Nats Blog

Nats Beat Others to Punch, Secure Wang

Hall of Fame Indicators

Washington Nationals Top Pitching Prospects 2010

Washington Nationals Top Position Player Prospects 2010

The Launch Post