The Two Hole

Discussion about potential batting orders are a natural occurrence during the spring training period.  There are always new guys on the team, others are playing above or below their actual talent levels, and the manager will use a various combination of orders throughout the Grapefruit League competition.  For the Nats, the #1, 3, 4, and 5 slots are locked down by Morgan, Zimmerman, Dunn, and Willingham.  Who bats second will be the most important spot still open in spring training, with Guzman having the early head start.  Using splits and other considerations, let us take a look at the Nationals likely options for the two hole on opening day:


Cristian Guzman:
When batting #2 in 2009:  266 PA, 8 BB, 36 SO, 5 GDP, .286/.310/.393
When batting #2 career:  2819 PA, 114 BB, 372 SO, 36 GDP, .271/.303/.388


He does not have a great on base percentage (.307 career), he no longer has enough speed to steal bases (12 total in the last three seasons), and he does not see many pitches (3.26 Pitches/PA).  The one possible reason you would consider Guzman batting second is his contact percentage (and possibly because he can bat from both sides).  Among the candidates on this list, Guzman had the highest contact percentage last year:




Guzman - 85.3%
Kennedy - 83.7%
Desmond - 81.8%
Dukes - 73.6%


Old school managers like Riggleman like to try the hit and run often, especially when you have a guy with Morgan's speed leading off.  Making contact is an important part of these plays.  There is talk from some fans that Guzman can not bat in any other spots in the lineup or else he will be miserable.  I do not buy that one second.  Despite the fact that Guzman has spent most of his time with the Nationals at the top of the order, his career splits reveal that he has had success batting in the 6 hole, which would be a very suitable spot for him on the current squad.  Guzman's contact could be valuable in moving Willingham and Dukes over or even scoring players held up at second or third.  The early indications are that Riggleman will in fact bat second, but Guzman is not even guaranteed to make the team at this point.


Adam Kennedy:
When batting #2 in 2009:  83 PA, 7 BB, 8 SO, 1 GDP, .292/.370/.500
When batting #2 in career:  716 PA, 39 BB, 85 SO, 14 GDP, .280/.330/.401


Kennedy spent most of last season batting lead-off for the A's, but is going to find himself in a different spot with the Nats.  Out of all the guys in this post, Kennedy has the best chance of being the answer at #2 right now.  He had good power (29 2B/11 HR last season), can hit for average, is good for 15-20 stolen bases a season, and can work the count (3.90 pitches/PA).  He bats left-handed, so that means the top part of the order would be lefty heavy (Morgan, Kennedy, Dunn).  He is not too bad against LHP (.249/.305/.330), but enough so where you would have to consider only using him at #2 in favorable matchups.  His contact percentage is barely behind Guzman's, but the power and patience put him as the better option for the top of the order.




Elijah Dukes:
When batting #2 in 2009:  38 PA, 5 BB, 5 SO, 0 GDP, .212//.316/.242
When batting #2 in career:  217 PA, 26 BB, 47 SO, 5 GDP, .250/.350/.410


Two days ago, I took a look at Dukes and his struggles with the breaking ball.  With Nyjer Morgan cemented in the #1 spot, there will be a lot of fastballs coming the #2 hitter's way.  Given Dukes' problems against the breaking ball, it would be interesting to make a pitcher have to choose between throwing a fastball and having Dukes crush it or ignore the runner and throw a breaking ball in the dirt.  He played mostly behind Lastings Milledge/Cristian Guzman last year when he batted second, those guys were rarely on base and were hardly base stealing threats.At this point, Dukes has not shown enough consistency to be considered for a top of the lineup spot, but if "things started to click" (the phrase most associated with Dukes) than Dukes projects to be a great option for the second spot.  He would have above average power for a #2 hitter, he has good speed if he can learn how to run the bases properly, and can work the pitcher, especially when there are less breaking balls coming his way.  His ability to make contact is poor, making him a liability on any hit and run, and while he sees a good deal of pitches (3.69 pitches/PA), he does not see as many as some people will credit him with.  Dukes still has a lot of kinks to work out before he is even considered a good MLB regular, but in time he could develop the traits that would allow him to be an excellent option batting behind Nyjer Morgan.


Ian Desmond:
When batting #2 in MLB:  43 PA, 2 BB, 9 SO, 1 GDP, .300/.333/.425
When batting #2 in MiLB (2009):  121 PA, 13 BB, 22 SO, 0 GDP, .340/.417/.491


Desmond got his first cup of coffee last season and will almost certainly be back with the big league team at some point this season.  The majority of his at-bats last season with Washington came in the two hole, but he is still a long ways away from earning the right to bat their on a regular basis.  Desmond showed that he could be successful at two in the minors.  Desmond had some trouble with changeups and curves last season, but his in-play% for four seam fastballs (22.6%) was second only to Guzman (27.4%).  Desmond put up good numbers against both lefties and righties, while having good success with a runner on first (.368/.429/.579).  The amount of pitches/PA that he saw (3.69) was close to Dukes, so the kid has some patience.  It is not his bat that is holding him back right now, but when his glove does come around, Desmond could find himself batting #2 for the Nationals.

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Your opinion of who should bat #2 will rely on what type of hitter should be in that slot.  A lot of old school managers will want their second hitter to be a high contact guy that can hit the ball to either side of the field.  Guzman would fit in this mold, but there are questions whether his numbers will decline even more this year.  Other schools of thought want a high OBP guy that can hit at #2, someone like Nick Johnson.  None of the guys in consideration even approach Johnson's OBP, but Kennedy is the one who probably comes closest and he can hit.  Lastly, their is the way of thinking that I have alluded to already in which you have a guy bat #2 that will make the pitcher think seriously about throwing a fastball with a runner on base.  If this is you than a polished Elijah Dukes would probably be your choice.


What seems likely is that Riggleman will start the season with Guzman in the two hole.  Kennedy should get a shot when it is against RHP.  Dukes is the best choice of the bunch, IF he turns out to be the player everyone is hoping for and Desmond is going to get heavy consideration for the spot once he arrives, but for now he is not much of factor.  If I were making the lineups, though, I would have Ryan Zimmerman at #2, but that is never going to happen.