...and then Mike Rizzo kissed the frog and it turned into a winning baseball team. Ok, so maybe the fairy tale ending is a bit over the top in regards to the Washington National's organization, but almost no fan can deny that this offseason had a less bitter taste to it than those of offseasons past. Jim Bowden was notorious for blowing cash on insane contract renewals (Austin Kearns and Dmitri Young were the main culprits) and then using what was left to search the salvage yard for anything with a pulse (ahem Daniel Cabrera). After a messy scandal involving the Nationals Dominican operations, Bowden was shown the door and Mike Rizzo emerged as the top candidate for his spot.
Rizzo started as a scout like his pops and rose through the ranks in the Diamondback's organization as a talent evaluator. His experience in this area is going to be vital, especially to a team that has held high draft picks in each of their drafts in the last half-decade, including the first pick last year and this upcoming year. He started the long process of overhauling this team last season and has continued into the winter. The process began with a revamping of the front office with some of the most experienced and respected minds in the game (Roy Clark, Davey Johnson, etc.). For my first post I would like to take a look at some of the signings Rizzo has made thus far.
KEY PICKUPS THIS OFFSEASON:
Jason Marquis (SP) - With 7 wins this season John Lannan will become the franchise's* all-time leader in wins. With 27 wins, Jason Marquis could take that honor. The point here, of course, is that the Nationals have always been missing a key component of their club, pitching. The signing of a guy like Marquis is a step that should have been taken 5 years ago, especially when considering that some of the best pitchers this organization has thrown out there include the likes of Livan Hernandez, Tony Armas, and Tim Redding. Look, Marquis might not be an "All-Star" ever again in his career, but he is easily one of (if not) the best arms that has come to Washington.
Marquis was statistically better than all of the Nats pitchers last year with the possible exception of John Lannan. In fact, Marquis is much like Lannan, a guy that does not have overpowering stuff (90 MPH fastball with good secondary slider), but that keeps the ball down (1.23 GB/FB ratio in 2009) and is efficient (3.52 P/PA vs. 3.81 league average). He brings the likelihood of 200 IP to a team that had only two pitchers surpass 100 IP. Then there is always the "veteran-mentor" attribute he is likely to bring to a very young and very raw pitching staff. If the mentor label holds any truth at all, he will be a very positive influence on two similar pitchers already on the staff, Lannan and Craig Stammen. And even though he was snubbed during the post-season, some people will say that he is a "winner." So a reliable, ground ball pitcher, supposedly high character guy who is probably good for around 200 innings sounds like a major upgrade for the staff of last year. Marquis is far from a cure-all and is most likely around for only the duration of his two year contract, but for the first time in the history of DC baseball I am satisfied with at least two of the pitchers expected to be in the opening day rotation.
* A quick note about how this blog will handle the Washington franchise. A lot of purists like to include the Montreal Expo's history with the National's due to the fact that DC's team was relocated from the Canadian city. While this may true, as a Washington Nationals purist, I have no interest in the Expos. Through what this franchise had to endure under MLB-ownership it seems proper to consider the Nationals as unique to the Expos. I apologize in advance to all the former-Expo fans and purists in the crowd.
Adam Kennedy (2B) - Bowden declared that he had found the Nats "Second baseman of the future" in 2008 when the Nats acquired Emilio Bonifacio from Arizona. Bonifacio did not last on the team until the end of the year. In 2009, the Nats relied on a combination of Ronnie Belliard, Anderson Hernandez, and Alberto Gonzalez. Belliard was traded to the Dodgers and Hernandez was traded back to the Mets, with the net gain from the two being two younger guys (Victor Garate and Greg Veloz) that will probably not end up being anything better than fringe major league players. Gonzalez has pretty much played himself out a spot, leaving the Nats considering moving the aging Cristian Guzman to 2B with Ian Desmond (aka "The Next A-Rod") playing the 6. The Nats went after Orlando Hudson for the second year in a row and for the second year in a row they were rebuked, this time with Hudson bolting for Minnesota. The Nationals immediately turned their sights to Adam Kennedy and within hours he was the Nationals 2B for 2010.
The signing is low risk and the team has the choice of using an option on Kennedy next season for 2 million $. Kennedy should solidify the 2B position for at least this year, but Nats fans should have some concerns in regards to the former ALCS MVP. Many 2B tend to experience a large drop-off in their range right around the age of 34; Kennedy reaches that age this season. Kennedy was off-key defensively last year, posting career lows in fielding % (.967), double plays turned (28), range factor (4.2), plus/minus (-10) and UZR (-5.6). He has had one good defensive season in the last four years and his range will most likely decline some more this year. Add to this the fact that Tony LaRussa urged the Cardinals to cut the guy, an ugly swing, and past reports of poor conditioning, the idea that Kennedy is an ideal solution for the Nats becomes less certain. Rizzo and the Nationals are gambling that last year was a fluke at 2B for AK (not to be confused with Austin Kearns), but age-related research, defensive metric trends, and odds make improvement seem unlikely. So, the burning question is "did the Nationals improve with the addition of Kennedy?"
And this answer is easy, YES. I have Kennedy down for about 110-120 starts at 2B this season for the Nationals (keep in mind he has not started more than 80 games at 2B since 2006). Last year's assortment of Hernandez/Belliard/Gonzalez combined for 133 starts at second. Defensively speaking, Kennedy is an upgrade over Belliard and Gonzalez. For all the heat Belliard took last year, he really was not all that bad in field (posted a 2.2 UZR) and fit perfectly into the UIF/PH role that he would have been used as in a perfect world. Unfortunately, Belliard never seemed to get his glove and bat going at the same time and was traded to LA when his bat finally caught fire. The other guy who did play better defense than AK last year, Anderson '360' Hernandez, was a guy who was extremely deficient with the bat (.251/.310/.320 in 255 PA). This is where Kennedy really stands apart from these guys, with the wood. None of the 2B from last year had a wBOA above .300 (~.330 is average), Belliard with .297 was the highest of the bunch. Accordingly, all three of these guys had - wRAA numbers. Kennedy experienced somewhat of an offensive resurgence last season, posting a .289/.348/.410 line, one of the best of his career. Just the fact that Kennedy's OBP had 38 points more than the best of last year's bunch (AH - .310) makes me feel good about this signing.
It would be great if AK can post the same type of offensive numbers as he did last year, while simultaneously returning to form with his glove, but this seems like hoping for too much. With Jeff Kobernus as the only 2B prospect worth noting in the system, it seems likely that the Nats will be relying on AK or another stop gap next year. This signing will live up to expectations if Kennedy: a.) plays average defense, b.) contributes solid support as a bottom of the order hitter (lineup discussion will be another day), and c.) provides stability at a position that has been constantly in-flux within this organization. Kennedy is not the type of player that would be starting on a Series contender, but he also is not a AAAA'er and there is some sign of relief in that sentence.
Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez (C) - As many of you will soon learn, I am a big fan of Jesus Flores. I have liked everything I have seen from him and still believe the potential is there for him to be an everyday catcher in this league. Having said that (for all you Curb Your Enthusiasm fans), Flores has not been able to stay on the field and has left the Nationals to field guys like Wil Nieves, Josh Bard, and Paul Lo Duca as their everyday face behind the plate. Flores has played a total of 102 games the past two seasons (Nieves has played 140 in this time span). If Flores is healthy and able to play then he has to be the guy. History, though, gives the Nats FO a lesson in warnings and necessitated the signing of a veteran catcher who could fill in if Flores was to go down again. Enter Pudge.
I can agree with the general consensus that Pudge was signed for more than he was worth (2 years, $6 mil); there were other younger guys out there (Torrealba, Barajas, Redmond) that could have done some of the same things as I-Rod, but for less money. Then there is the elephant in the room to consider, Pudge's age (38 this season). Sharp downturns in his AVG, OBP, and SLG have raised some red flags, most likely connected to his increasing age. Pudge has always been somewhat of a free swinger (57.9 Swing% vs Lg. Avg of 45.2%) and his situational hitting has been called into question more than once, but he can still hit the ball almost anywhere on the field and he still has that clutch factor that helped make his name.
Where the Nationals found most value with Pudge, though, was his defense and, wait for it, "veteran leadership." Pudge's arm still remains one of the most feared foes of Major League base runners. His 35% CS was notably better than Bard and Nieves, yet significantly lower than his career average of 46% CS. There has also been reports over the years that Rodriguez has started to call too many fastballs in order to get the runners out. I wonder how that will help the development of the young pitchers on the staff? I-Rod is an upgrade over the Nieves/Bards of yesteryear and as long as he is playing less than 80 games he should play around replacement level with the added perk of his status as "mentor."
Matt Capps (RP) - One name gave Nationals fans a headache more than any other last year, Joel Hanrahan. After watching Hanrahan toil in the closer's role after trading Jon Rauch in 2008, Jim Bowden/Manny Acta decided that he had done enough to earn the job for 2009, despite shaky performances in the 9th, 4 blown saves, and an IS% of 47%. Thus began the nightmare that was 2009's bullpen. Here follows a list of pitchers that gave the National's closer position a whirl last season:
1. Joel Hanrahan
2. Joe Beimel
3. Julian Tavarez
4. Ron Villone
5. Jorge Sosa
6. Logan Kensing
7. Kip Wells
8. Garrett Mock
9. Mike MacDougal
Wow, just looking at that list makes me want to cry myself to sleep tonight. I am sure I could figure it out if I sat down and mathed it out, but I suppose the bullpen probably lost us 25-30 games last year. If there is one aspect of this team that Mike Rizzo has acted immediately and thoroughly on, it would be the bullpen. He did his best to patch it up last year, but finding serviceable relievers past June is an almost impossible task. He did manage to swing for Sean Burnett, but his real mastery emerged during the winter meetings. He traded what was to be a useless Rule V pick for Brian Bruney, a reliever that will compete for the set-up job. He then signed a slew of cheap guys to non-guaranteed contracts, from which will emerge one or two guys that could be useful to us this year. I would assume guys like Jason Bergmann and Tyler Clippard will be fighting for their jobs too this spring.
But the best move of them all was the signing of Matt Capps. Capps had a rough 2009 with the Pirates, much of which can be attributed to a large rise in his HR/9 and BB/9, as well as a 1.66 WHIP. The Nationals believe that he will return to his 2008 form (3.02 ERA/0.99 WHIP/21 Saves) and I believe they are correct to assume so. As Jack Moore of FanGraphs has pointed out, Capps experienced increases in the velocity of all of his pitches last season. Most notably, his changeup sped up from 84.6 MPH to 87.1 MPH. The average distance between his fastball and changeup for his career of 8.5 MPH now sat at a difference of 6.5 MPH. It is no surprise that the effectiveness of the pitch dropped as well. Moore also points to a .370 BABIP as a sign that Capps is most likely headed towards a rebound season. I agree with everything Mr. Moore has to say. Perhaps Steve McCatty can get Capps to slow down his changeup or better yet, maybe Pudge or Marquis can mentor him on the subject. Either way, the Nationals are going into the season with a qualified closer at the back of the pen along with a bunch of other guys that actually belong there. Huh?
Instead of signing a former juicer, they got a future hall of famer. Instead of signing a bargain-priced thrower, they inked a guy that does not have the MLB record for most wild pitches in a game. Instead of standing for 'committee' the C once again stands for 'closer'. Instead of "2B of the future," we get a solid stopgap veteran without all the fanfare. Outstanding offseason? Far from it, but it is a huge step in the direction of respectability. And aside from wins, that is what this team needs more than anything at this moment.
NEXT UP: A look at the status of the Nationals Farm System
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