Rotation Preview

Pitchers and catchers have reported and spring training is officially underway.  The big story so far has been Steven Strasburg's presence in camp, with the ESPN RV stopping through Viera for a story on Sunday.  Everybody has been blown away by this kid, but let us not forget he is not the only one competing for a spot on this team.  In that spirit I present to you a preview of all the guys that are in contention for the rotation this spring training (Strasburg included):

Jason Marquis

2009 Stats:  216 IP, 4.04 ERA/4.10 FIP, 9.1 H/9, 3.3 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 0.63 HR/9, .291 BABIP

Money Pitch:  Slider

Total MLB Service Time:  9.01 years

2010 Rotation Chances:  Barring injury, Marquis is guaranteed to be in the rotation and will be in contention with Lannan for the opening day gig.  He has four major league pitches, including a plus slider.  Much of his success this season will be tied to the Nationals' defense as he is a guy that keeps the ball on the ground (2.03 GB/FB).  He is also a very similar pitcher to John Lannan and Craig Stammen, so it is not unreasonable to expect Marquis to be a positive influence on both Lannan and Stammen this season.

John Lannan

2009 Stats:  206.1 IP, 3.88 ERA/4.70 FIP, 9.2 H/9, 3.0 BB/9, 3.9 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, .276 BABIP

Money Pitch:  Slider/Curve

Total MLB Service Time: 2.04 years

2010 Rotation Chances:  He is a lock.  He was drafted by the team in 2006 and made his debut in 2007. Ever since he has been the most reliable pitcher Washington has had to offer.  He has good command of the strike zone and can work out of jams.  He has a good selection of pitches (sinker, curve, slider, change) and does a great job of locating them all.  Now this season he and Marquis have the opportunity to form a formidable 1-2 punch at the front of the Nationals' rotation.  Lannan recently switched his agent to Brodie Van Wagenen, the same agent as Ryan Zimmerman, so it will be interesting to see if the Nats can come to an extension agreement this season in order to avoid arbitration with Lannan next year.

Scott Olsen

2009 Stats:  62.2 IP, 6.03 ERA/5.24 FIP, 11.9 H/9, 3.6 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, .348 BABIP

Money Pitch:  Slider/Changeup

Total MLB Service Time:  4.10 years

2010 Rotation Chances:  Olsen has failed to live up to the expectations the Nationals had for him when they received him in a trade from the Marlins.  He struggled for most of the season in 2009 before having  season ending labrum surgery.  He was DFA'ed and resigned by Washington this off-season.  Olsen had some good seasons with the Marlins a few years ago, but he has been losing velocity on his fastball the last few seasons.  The drop may be due to mechanical changes Olsen has instituted or may have been early indicators of his injury.  If Olsen is unable to regain the speed on his heater, then he will have to maximize the rest of his pitch arsenal in order to remain a major league caliber pitcher (see June 29 vs FLA last season).  If Olsen shows he has returned to form in ST, then he will be in the rotation.  If not, then his future becomes a lot murkier.

Craig Stammen

2009 Stats:  105.2 IP, 5.11 ERA/4.68 FIP, 9.5 H/9, 2.0 BB/9, 4.1 SO/9, 1.2 HR/9, .282 BABIP

Money Pitch:  Slider

Total MLB Service Time: 0.14 years

2010 Rotation Chances:  Good.  It appears that the Nationals think Stammen pitched well enough last season to earn the #3 spot in the rotation this April.  If it was not for bone chips in his elbow and the subsequent surgery, Stammen would have finished out the season in the Nats rotation.  He is a back-end of the rotation type of guy with very good control (see 2.0 BB/9).  Last season he would start out games like a rock star, then by the fourth inning he would look more like an American Idol wannabe.  In statistical terms, by the third time through the order he was having trouble getting people out (.330 BAA and 6 SO vs 100 batters).  Like Lannan and Marquis, struggles by the infield defense will mean struggles for Stammen this season.  Stammen will still have to prove that he is 100% recovered from a pretty minor surgery, but all indicators point to the #3 spot being his.

Collin Balester

2009 Stats:  30.1 IP, 6.82 ERA/7.45 FIP, 10.1 H/9, 4.2 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 3.0 HR/9, .268 BABIP

Money Pitch:  Curveball

Total MLB Service Time: 0.13 years

2010 Rotation Chances:  Balester has mostly struggled in his time as Nationals starting pitcher.  He has had problems with keeping the ball down and pitching from the stretch.  He has good speed on his fastball and has a knee-buckling curve, but lacks another pitch that can be used against major league hitters.  Balester is going to end up in the bullpen unless things suddenly start clicking for him as a starter.  We predict he loses out to a guy like Garrett Mock or J.D. Martin for the final rotation spot.

Shairon Martis

2009 Stats:  85.2 IP, 5.25 ERA/5.48 FIP, 8.7 H/9, 4.1 BB/9, 2.6 SO/9, 1.2 HR/9, .258

Money Pitch:  Slider

Total MLB Service Time:  0.11 years

2010 Rotation Chances:  The Nationals can afford to allow Martis, 23, to stay in the minors for a little bit longer as he still has one option year remaining.  Martis showed that he had the potential to be a major league starter one day in games against St Louis on May 2 and San Francisco on May 13.  He also showed that he needed more seasoning in the minors, especially after he was owned by the Phillies twice last season.  He has good all around stuff, but he has to prove he can get out lefties before he will get another big league shot.  Also, Steve McCatty hinted that he was dropping his arm slot last season which led to his nibbling.  He pitched himself into the rotation last spring and could possibly do it again this year, but look for Martis to start the year in AAA.

J.D. Martin

2009 Stats:  77.0 IP, 4.44 ERA/5.67 FIP, 9.9 H/9, 2.8 BB/9, 4.3 K/9, .283 BABIP
Money Pitch:  None, all pitches are average

Total MLB Service Time:  0.08 years

2010 Rotation Chances:  Riggleman announced that Martin and Mock were both in competition for the final two rotation spots.  After spending most of his career in the Indians farm system, the Nationals signed Martin as a minor league free agent last season and he made his major league debut last July.  He does not having overwhelming stuff, all of his pitches are average.  His fastball sits around 87-88 MPH and he relies mostly on the location of his pitches to get guys out.  Martin could make the rotation, but do not expect him to stay there when guys like Wang and Detwiler return later this summer.

Matt Chico

2009 Stats (AA Harrisburg):  50.1 IP, 4.29 ERA/3.95 FIP, 9.7 H/9, 5.0 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, .329 BABIP

Money Pitch:  none, junkballer

Total MLB Service Time:  2.10 years

2010 Rotation Chances:  A long shot to make the opening day roster.  After nearly a year of recovery from Tommy John surgery, Matt Chico was able to pitch 60 minor league innings last season.  This season he is looking to reclaim a spot in the rotation.  Chico, much like Martin, has an underwhelming selection of pitches.  His ability to get batters out is tied to how well he keeps them off balance and how well he changes the speeds of his pitches.  Even when Chico was a regular on the Nationals team in 2007, he did not quite look a guy that could be a starter on a winning team some day.  We will see how he does in ST, but Chico will remain a darkhorse to take the last spot in rotation.

Garrett Mock

2009 Stats:  91.1 IP, 5.62 ERA/4.28 FIP, 11.2 H/9, 4.3 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, .361 BABIP

Money Pitch:  Changeup

Total MLB Service Time:  1.01 years

2010 Rotation Chances:  Mock is a tough call.  The Nationals thought his stuff was better suited for the role of a closer last season, but after a failed experiment Mock returned to the Nationals rotation and pitched.  Mock has very good strikeout potential with his changeup and curveball, but has struggled with control and walks during his career.  He has the talent to pitch in the majors, but he needs to settle down mentally. Rizzo likes Mock and drafted him when he was with Arizona.  Struggles against lefties and against batters after the second time through the order.  If he pitches well in spring training, he will make the rotation.

Stephen Strasburg

2009 Stats (NCAA SDSU):  109.0 IP, 1.32 ERA,  5.4 H/9, 1.6 BB/9, 16.1 K/9, 0.3 HR/9

Money Pitch:  Fastball

Total MLB Service Time:  N/A

2010 Rotation Chances:  TBA.  Strasburg is going to be in the rotation at some point this season, the only question is when.  Strasburg has a heater that can touch three digits with wicked movement, a plus sliding curveball ("slurve"), and two other potential pitches in his changeup and two-seamer.  Strasburg could struggle under the expectations everyone has placed on him.  He could awe Mike Rizzo and Jim Riggleman in spring training and force their hand in putting him in the rotation from day 1.  The likely scenario has Strasburg starting the season in the minors as a mere formality and then pitching his way to Washington.  Strasburg is a precious piece of "inventory" for the Nationals and they are going to do everything in their power to protect him.

Aaron Thompson

2009 Stats (AA Harrisburg):  32.2 IP, 3.31 ERA/3.75 FIP, 9.0 H/9, 3.0 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, .308 BABIP

Money Pitch:  Changeup

Total MLB Service Time:  N/A

2010 Rotation Chances:  If anything, the Nationals just want to see what kind of stuff Thompson has in ST.  It will be a good experience for the guy, but he is going to be back in the minors come April.  Depending on how things go for Thompson and the Nationals, AT could be pitching in the big leagues later this year.  We predict he will start the season in Syracuse and serve as insurance for the Nationals in the case that injuries become an issue.

Jesse English

2009 Stats (AA Connecticut):  100.2 IP, 4.20 ERA/4.68 FIP, 5.1 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, .295 BABIP

Money Pitch:  Changeup

Total MLB Service Time:  N/A

2010 Rotation Chances:  Extremely slim.  A former Giants farmhand, English is a LHP with a good fastball/change combo.  He has lost velocity since his impressive debut as a 17-year old prospect in 2002, has changed his mechanics various times over the years, and has yet to play a game above AA in his seven year professional career.  English will not make the big league team, but he will get a shot to prove his potential value in spring training and in the minors.