Washington Nationals Top Position Player Prospects 2010

With Spring Training fast approaching, things are starting to slow down in terms of player movement. Just for the hell of it, I thought I'd post my top 30 (15 pitchers, 15 position players) rankings of the Nationals farm system.  I should take a second to address the issue of prospects as a whole before I delve into the lists.

Drafting prospects is far from an exact science and, much like the game of baseball, it is a game of failure. Out of about 50 some players drafted by each team every year, a team would be more than happy to have five of them contribute to the major league roster someday.  Many of these players drafted are kids straight out of high school that will not have the benefit of getting slapped around (and learning from it) in the college leagues; they have to do this in the minors.  Oftentimes players are drafted because of their ability in one or two specific areas with the club hoping that they will be develop in the areas they skills they are lacking.  That is what the minor leagues are about, though, development.  At any one time a player in the minors could be working specifically on one facet of his game.  With the dearth of reporting on minor league players/teams, it is hard to know exactly what the causes for each player not performing to expectations might be.  What I am getting at is that players might show poor statistics for 3 or 4 years in the minors, but due to age and development factors they should not be considered "busts" (yet).  That is not to say we should not be worried with highly touted players that seriously underperform.  We just need to keep in mind that there more than just the numbers.  So without further adieu here is my position players list, to be followed by the pitchers list in the near future...


Batters

1.  Derek Norris (21, C, 2007/4th) -  The Nationals minor league hitter of the year is coming off a breakout season that has many considering him one of the best prospects in the organization.  He was amongst the South-Atlantic League's leaders in TB, 2B, HR, RBI.  He put up a monster line of .286/.413/.513 at Hagerstown and was one of the only consistent offensive producers on the team last year.  The only weak area of his offensive game is the strikeouts (111 last year), but with an eye like his it would be easy fathom this number dropping as he gains more pro experience.  His bat is going to get him to the majors at some point, but what position he will play is still up in the air.  He has struggled behind the plate after playing 3B for much of his HS career.  His game-calling and blocking skills (28 passed balls in 2009) are well below average, but he does have a rocket of an arm (almost 50% CS).  Norris is still very young and should have another year or two to prove he belongs behind the plate before the Nationals contemplate moving him.  If he is moved, my guess is that he ends up in RF.  He was supposed to play in the AFL this fall, but sustained an injury and returned home to rehab for the off season.  He will be in Viera for ST.



2.  Danny Espinosa (23, SS, 2008/3rd) - After having the opportunity to watch Espinosa play a few times for Potomac last season, all I can say is wow this kid can play some defense.  He might be the best defender currently in the system and that is no surprise considering his pedigree (Long Beach St CC).  He was the Nationals representative in the Futures game last year (Martis was the representative in 2008) and is held in extremely high regard by the Nats FO.  At this point his glove is ML ready, but his bat still lags slighly behind.  Do not get me wrong, Espinosa can hit.  He hit 31 doubles and 17 home runs for Potomac last season and went through several hot streaks where he was seeing the ball as well as anyone in the league.  Like Norris, he has a very good eye but can struggle with strikeouts from time to time (129:73 SO:BB).  His main issue last season was striking out with two strikes, which seems to be a mental hump he needs to get over.  Despite this, if I had to pick one guy in the system that I absolutely thought was going to be a major league player one day, I would put my money on Espinosa.

3.  Chris Marrero (21, 1B, 2006/1st) -  I will have to tell you, I saw this kid play a bunch of times at Pfitzner and, boy, does he have a clutch bat.  Unfortunately, an injury derailed his career last season.  He made a good comeback with Potomac this year (.287/.360/.464) and earned the right to finish up the season with Harrisburg.  In the AFL he showed why he was one of the top prospects in the organization with his bat.  He has good driving power and can hit the gaps when he needs to, giving him the potential to be a 20 HR/40 2B guy in the big leagues one day.  What has held him back, though, has been his defense.  Too many bad plays, miscues at the bag, and errors have many people questioning whether Marrero will be able to stick at 1B and the NL for that matter.  Regardless of what his future has in store for him, look for Marrero to mash the ball at Harrisburg and, most likely, Syracuse.

4.  Michael Burgess (21, OF, 2007/1st) -  This guy is a very interesting prospect.  Burgess has amazing power (43 HRs the last two seasons), especially considering his size (5'11), has a cannon of an arm (future RF), has deceptive speed (12 SB last year), and he draws a good amount of walks.  He sounds like a great prospect if you leave out his two biggest weaknesses, left-handed pitchers and strikeouts.  In his career, Burgess is .226/.309/.356 against LHP.  It would not be so bad if he had success against RHP, but those numbers are exactly stellar either (.266/.306/.503).  He is your typical feast or famine type of hitter.  He is going to crank the pitch or strike out, with the occasional walk in between.  The strikeouts, which many people will attribute to the long looping swing he uses, are much too abundant.  He is good for about a strikeout every 4 at-bats, which if you have ever watched baseball you would know, is very damaging to a team's lineup.  What probably needs to happen is Burgess sitting down one of the Nats hitting instructors and figuring out how to compact his swing a bit.  By doing this, though, the Nationals may risk losing some of the power Burgess is able to generate using this swing.  The other (or additional) option is for Burgess to work on pitch recognition.  Burgess has always been one of my favorite players in the farm system and I will never forget his performance in the P-Nats playoffs last year (minus getting ejected because of a bad strike call).  Burgess is still a long ways from being a ML-caliber player, but at age 21 the Nationals can afford to allow Mike a few more years to develop.

5.  Destin Hood (20, OF, 2008/2nd) - Hood is one of those "five-tool" guys that you always hears about.    He has all the athletic ability to become one of those guys, it is just a matter of him developing his abilities into skills.  After showcasing some serious power (.614 SLG) in Florida, Hood was bumped up to Vermont for the second half of the season.  It was in the NY-Penn league where signs of deficiency began to show as he struggled to hit against LHP (.194/.256/.250 vs. LHP).  His batting eye may need a bit of work, also, after he put up a SO:BB ratio of 64:18 for 2009.  Some growing pains should be expected with Hood, as this is the first season he has dedicated to baseball after playing football most of his youth. If he can learn to work the count and figure out how to hit lefties, Hood would be poised to become a star player one day.  If he can not, then he may be facing a path similar to Burgess.

6.  Ian Desmond (25, SS, 2004/3rd) -  Desmond made his Washington Nationals debut on September 10 of 2009, but did not play enough games to be considered a rookie.  After spending most of his years within the system trying to live up to Jim Bowden's hype ("the next Derek Jeter"), Desmond appears to finally have found his groove.  I will admit that I have mixed feelings "Lil' Jeter" after watching him for so many years on our farm teams.  At times he would make spectacular plays that would make you drop to the ground, other times his defensive play would make you question what he was doing playing baseball.  His bat seemed to take a Rip Van Winkle type slumber for many years, until this past season he exploded with Harrisburg (.306/.372/.494) and then Syracuse (.354/.428/.461).  Whatever the reason for this sudden surge, whether it be growth spurt, proper instruction, what have you, Desmond continued to mash even at the highest level when called upon.  His BABIP in the minors predicted a drop in his production, but no such thing has occurred yet.  If there was one thing to nitpick about in his offensive game last year, it would be the strikeouts (oftentimes these drop with ML experience).  It was smart for the Nationals to not rely on Desmond as the SS for the entire year, because it is very possible that last year was a fluke for him.  It is also within the realm of possibility that things finally came together for the kid and that Nationals fans could be hearing him name on a more regular basis in the not-so-distant future.

7.  Jeff Kobernus (21, 2B, 2009/2nd) - Kobernus suffered a knee injury slightly after signing with the Nationals.  He only had 41 at-bats last season, in which he only had 9 hits.  Despite not playing much, Kobernus is still one of the top position player prospects for the Nats, based off of his draft position and potential.  At UC-Berkley, Kobernus showed that he had good power for a second baseman, has a decent eye, and has very good speed, making him a prime candidate for a top of the order type in the future.  Much like Espinosa, his defense is further ahead of his bat, which the Nationals are expecting to develop as he matures.  I do not have much more to say about the guy at this point, but I will be watching him closely at Vermont/Hagerstown this year to see what he has to offer as a pro.

8.  Eury Perez (19, OF, Dominican) -  Eury Perez is pretty much the only international bat worth noting in the Nationals organization.  After two seasons putting up pretty numbers for the DSL Nats, Perez was rewarded with a stint in the GCL and he did not disappoint.  He projects as a solid contact hitter with ample speed and great outfield defense.  It would not surprise me to see his line of .381/.443/.503 drop off as he progresses through the minor league ranks.  He could also work on his baserunning, as he was thrown out 8 of 24 times last season after only getting caught 6/34 in the DSL the season before.  Reports are that he has the skills to play CF.  If his bat holds up, he could be a key component to the ML roster one day for the team from Washington.  At 19 years old and coming off a season where he was named the Topps GCL player of the year, Perez is easily one of the most interesting prospects that Nats have and hopefully is the first of many international players to rise through the ranks.

9.  J.P.  Ramirez (20, OF, 2008/15th) - I was ecstatic when the Nationals were able to sign Ramirez after they took him in the 15th round of the 2008 draft.  Ramirez was considered one of the best HS hitting prospects, but fell because of worries over his bonus demands (the Nats ended up doling out $1 mil for him).  Despite this, Ramirez did struggle in his first season and left many observers with questions about his future.  He struggled mightily against LHP last year and his power is still developing as his body finishes maturing.  Still, he is a good contact hitter that can shoot the gaps and he has decent speed that allows him to extend singles to doubles and doubles to triples.  Reports on his defense were mixed, but he is currently projecting as a corner OF.  Look for Ramirez to make major strides in the next two seasons and it would not be surprising to see him crack the top 5 in the future.  Ramirez will be in Vermont or Hagerstown this year.

10.  Justin Maxwell (26, OF, 2005/4th) - Justin Maxwell was a typical Jim Bowden pick.  He was drafted because of his physical ability and potential, but never quite lived up to all the hype.  I hesitated to even include him on this list because of his major league experience.  At this point, Maxwell's only real value is as a defensive outfielder (amazing catch versus Baltimore anyone?).  He will not be a regular because 1.) he can not hit for a decent average and 2.) he just strikes out way too much.  His upside includes a bat with above average power and incredible speed in the outfield/on the basepaths.  I could see a possibility of him one day platooning in the OF, in part because of his line against LHP (.286/.352/.429), but that is about the ceiling on where Maxwell can go.  Another slight against him is supposed inability to stay healthy throughout his career.

11.  J.R. Higley (21, OF, 2008/9th) - The Nationals have a fairly solid group of hitters in the top 10, but after them there is a serious drop off.  The guys 10+ are most likely AAAA type of guys, if they can even make it that far.  Higley is one of my favorite dark horse prospects and if his body fills out a little bit more he could be a possible major leaguer one day.  He has good defensive speed and a great arm, meaning that he can play any three of the outfield positions.  He had an excellent batting eye in college, but that has diminished quite a bit during his time in the minors.  His power is below average and he should be viewed mostly as a contact hitter nowadays.  Despite good speed, he is not the best of baserunners (6 SB/6 CS last season).  Higley might not even belong on this list, but there is something in him that makes me believe he has not been playing up to par in the last two years.

12.  Stephen Lombardozzi (21, IF, 2008/19th) - Along with Norris and Moore, was one of the only sources of production at Hagerstown last year (.296/.375/.395).  A switch-hitter with good plate discipline, Lombardozzi could find himself as a bottom of the order big leaguer one day, with the more likely possibility being utility infielder (2B/SS).  He does not have great power, but he does can hit doubles with the best of them.  His splits are good from both sides (.292 vs. .298) of the plate and he is a guy that will hit for average most years.  Lombardozzi's name is not the most well known, but another productive season or two should put him on a lot more people's radars.

13.  Tyler Moore (23, 1B, 2008/16th) -  Moore's name is one that you do not hear very often mentioned in relation to the Nats.  He was an unheralded pick out of Mississippi St. who spent most of his first professional season adjusting to the increased quality of pitching.  A year later, in 2009, Moore got the spot as Hagerstown everyday 1B and he did not disappoint.  He ranked in the SAL's top 10 in many different offensive categories, including 3rd in RBIs.  He is able to drive in runners (.311 with RISP), is a great guy to have up at the plate for a sacrifice fly, and can hit LHP/RHP.  His problems:  strikes out too much, everything he hits is in the air, and he is a bit old to put too much stake in his Hagerstown numbers.  He most closely resembles another 2009 Nationals farmhand, Brad Eldred, which means that his most likely career prospects are starting first baseman at Syracuse.

14.  Adrian Nieto (20, C, 2008/5th) - The Nationals paid overslot in 2008 to ensure their fifth round pick, who was projected to go much earlier, would play for their minor league teams.  Despite the buzz around this kid, he has pretty much been a statistical disappointment.  He has not yet developed the power many expected him to have and has only hit 9 doubles and 0 HR in his 50 games played with the organization.  He has yet to hit over .230 in any pro season and probably his only saving grace is that he has maintained a good eye at the plate (32 K:22 BB, .322 OBP).  His discipline numbers are not great, but are also not that bad considering he has not been hitting much at all.  Nieto is still very young, has been recovering from an elbow injury he suffered in HS, and was just playing his first full season as a pro.  I still think he has a ton of potential and believe that this year will be a measuring stick of his potential for the future.

15.  Greg Veloz (21, 2B, Trade-NYM) - The Nats got Veloz in a deal that sent Anderson Hernandez back to the Mets this year.  What baffled me about that trade was Hernandez was traded for a player that resembled a former National.... Anderson Hernandez.  We are talking about a great defensive second baseman (he has the arm, the range, and the glove) with tons of speed.  He can be a pretty good contact hitter batting as a lefty against RHP.  These are his positive attributes.  As for his negative qualities, he has almost no chance of becoming a top of the order guy.  In 1569 career minor league plate appearances Veloz has a total of 123 walks!  For those of you that do not know, that is pathetic.  On top of that, he does not play any position other than 2B, limiting his utility appeal, he has no power whatsoever, and he does not have the bat to play on a MLB squad.  A lot of things are going to have to click for this guy for him to figure into the Nationals future.


*Note:  the format of info in the parenthesis is as follows (age as of opening day 2010, position, year drafted/round drafted)

UP NEXT:  The Nationals Top 15 Pitching Prospects