Washington Nationals Top Pitching Prospects 2010

Pitchers

1.  Stephen Strasburg (21, 2009/1st) -  If you have not heard of Stras yet, then you probably have been hiding in a hole somewhere for the last year.  There is not much I can say about the guy that you probably do not already know.  The Nationals needed to sign him and they did (at the last second).  He had some knee problems in Arizona that should cause some alarm, but all signs point to him showing up 100% in Viera for ST.  My guess, we see him with Washington sometime in June or July.

2.  Drew Storen (22, 2009/1st) - I am just not high on taking a reliever with the 10th overall pick in the draft.  Relievers just do not have enough value to merit their selection that early.  Despite this, the Nationals bullpen was so bad last year and Storen is a quality enough pitcher for this pick to actually border on reason.  Relievers selected in the first round are very often "fast-tracked" meaning that the odds of Storen spending the whole 2010 season in the minors is close to zero. Storen features a fastball that tops out around 96 MPH and a good curveball that has some late bite on it.  After getting knocked around in his first two starts with Hagerstown, Storen rebounded and pitched magnificently for the Suns, the P-Nats, and the Senators.  His control was impeccable as well (8 walks in 37.1 minor league IP).  As he progressed through the ranks, his BB/9 increased and his SO/9 decreased.  This is not too alarming as this type of trend is to be expected with the increased quality of competition as well as a very small sample size.  In the 13 AFL innings, Storen allowed 16 hits, 1 ER, 3 BB, and struck out 13 batters.  These are pleasing numbers to my eyes and they indicate that Storen has the ability to make batters have to beat him.  There will not be any Mike MacDougal-esque walks from this kid.  I am sure to have lots more on this kid once the season starts.

3.  Bradley Meyers (24, 2007/5th) - Meyers is the reigning Nationals Minor League Pitcher of the Year and has sky rocketed up the prospect rankings because of it.  His arsenal of pitches is slightly above average and features a 92-94 MPH fastball with sink on it, a plus slider, and a work-in-progress changeup.  None of his pitches are an "out pitch," but he works well with what he has.  His sinker helps him maintain a good groundball ratio (1.20 last season) and prevent the long ball (0.40 HR/9 for his career).  Combined with an FIP of 2.88 and WHIP of 1.03 at all levels last season, Meyers is adding some solid points to his resume.  So a guy with great control that is able to keep the ball down and can work well with the pitches he has, sounds like someone I want pitching for my major league team one day.

4.  A.J. Morris (23, 2009/4th) - If you believe in the "Verducci Effect" (players under 25 that increase pitch load by more than 30 innings per year are exponentially more likely to get injured the following season) then Morris will scare you [*I will have more on the Verducci Effect next week].  In 2008, Morris pitched 53.2 innings for Kansas State and an additional 53.1 innings for Moses Lake during summer play for a total of 106.3 IP.  In 2009, before being drafted, Morris pitched a massive 116.1 innings for K-State and then another 42.2 innings for GCL and Hagerstown (thats 158.3 for those counting at home).  That is well beyond the 30 IP increase Verducci warns of.  If you think that is concerning, consider this, Morris had pitch counts in excess of 120 pitches on at least six occasions this past season with K-State, including two over 140 pitches.  This coupled with only two major league pitches (fastball/slider) has many people wondering if Morris will be best suited in the role of reliever.  The good news is that Morris' body has yet to show any negative reaction to the heavy workload.  A.J has good strike out potential (8.5 K/9) to go along with decent control (1.7 BB/9).  Many will be waiting to see how minor league hitters fare against Morris before they  make judgements on his future.  If he can develop his changeup into a serviceable professional pitch then he may get the chance to stay a starter.

5.  Juan Jaime (22, Dominican) - Jaime is another rare player to come up through the National's Dominican Academy.  He has a large frame (6'1, 180 lbs) and reports have his fastball clocked as high 98 MPH.  He has the physical traits to be a dominant reliever one day, but reports of inconsistency in his mechanics and with his pitch speeds make are concerning.  Additionally, he lacks a true secondary pitch and has been working on his curveball and changeup.  Currently, Jaime is being used as a starter (12 starts b/w Vermont and Hagerstown) and the Nationals are probably best served by letting him stick as a starter for a while longer.  When starting in his minor league career, he posted periphals of 1.10 WHIP, 11.43 K/9, 0.33 HR/9.  As a reliever, all of his peripherals go way up, even his K/9.  This is probably due to a low sample size (11.0 IP), but is also food for thought when the Nationals consider his path into the majors.

6.  Aaron Thompson (23, Trade-FLA) -  Acquired from Florida in the Nick Johnson trade and then added to the 40-man this winter.  Thompson, despite being a former 1st rounder, is not someone to get overly excited about.  Besides being a lefty, nothing really jumps out at you about him.  He played pretty well for Harrisburg last year after the trade (4.02 FIP, 1.30 WHIP) and was added to the 40-man roster due to Rule 5 considerations.  I do not know at this point if Washington is looking at him as a left-handed reliever or starter at this point, but it is highly probable that he sees some time with the big league squad at some point this season.

7.  Paul Demny (20, 2008/6th) - Demny is what I would consider a power arm.  He has a good 4-seamer (92-94 MPH range) that has good movement down in the zone, complimented by an effective 87-88 MPH 2-seamer and a curveball with good spin (he also has a slider).  He has a good sized body at 6'2 and 200 lbs.  Scouts have questioned Demny's mechanics over the years using words like "sloppy"and "inconsistent."  Despite this, Demny is a good pitcher that can be effectively wild and make opposing batters feeling extremely uncomfortable in the box.  His numbers for his minor league career:  3.50 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 3.45 BB/9, 9.10 K/9, 0.57 HR/9.  I like Demny's potential and think that he profiles as a solid starter for back-end of a major league rotation.  He will play most likely start the season with the Potomac Nationals.

8.  Atahualpa Severino (25, Dominican) -  Another guy that holds a special place in my heart for his part in the Potomac Nationals championship run in 2008.  Severino has been in the Nationals organization for some time and has finally started to earn some recognition over the last year and a half.  Severino has lively fastball that sits around 92 MPH and can max out at 94 MPH.  Like many other pitchers on this list, Severino knows how to keep the ball down, and is one of the best LHRP in the system currently.  After being promoted to Harrisburg last season, his K/9 saw a jump from 7.07 to 10.57, while his control suffered a bit.  Last season against LHH, Severino only allowed batting average against of .207 and kept the ball on the ground 67% of the time.  And he is not that bad against rightys either.  He rarely lets up the big hit and works very well under pressure.  After being added to the 40-man this offseason, it appears Severino will have one more season to prove he belongs in the Majors.

9.  Marcos Frias (21, Dominican) - Frias has been getting tons of love from prospect rankings and Nationals fans alike after completing two successful seasons with the Nats.  He went 9-5 for a weak Hagerstown team last year, posting rates of 8.8 H/9, 0.4 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, and a 1.22 WHIP.  Additionally, he pitched well against LHB (.257 AVG) and RHB (.251 AVG).  Frias is one of four players on my prospect lists from the Nationals Dominican efforts, which is an improvement from years past.  Hopefully this is the beginning of a trend for the Nationals after they revamped their international program this past season.  As for Frias, I look forward to getting a chance to see him play with Potomac this season and hopefully will have some more detailed information to report on him later in the season.

10.  Jeff Mandel (24, 2007/19th) - The Nationals intend to turn Mandel into a reliever and I would not be surprised to see the process begin this season.  Mandel does not have the stuff to be a starter, but his 90 MPH sinker and hard slider should help him make it as a reliever.  Mandel's pitching repertoire allows him to produce a large amount of ground balls (1.28 GO/FO).  He is not going to strike out a lot of guys, but he does not give up many walks and he is not going to get beat very often.  It goes without saying that Mandel would require an above average defense behind him to live up to his potential and, unfortunately, defense is not a strong suit of the Nationals organization right now.  In the AFL, Mandel pitched 14 innings, giving up 14 hits and 3 runs.  He did not allow a home run or give up a walk and struck out 10 batters.  Prediction on where he starts the season:  reliever with AA Harrisburg.

11.  Nathan Karns (22, 2009/12th) -  Karns was payed over slot ($225,000) after pitching for Texas Tech and North Carolina St. in college.  Karns is another power pitcher that has a fastball which can reach speeds up to 96 MPH.  He also has a hard, late-breaking curveball.  Through his college career, no one has questioned his ability to strike batters out (57 Ks in 54.1 IP for the Red Raiders last season), but many have expressed concern over his control.  He has had a BB/9 of at least 5.0 in each of his three collegiate seasons and there have been rumblings that he might not have the mental toughness to survive in professional baseball.  Karns fastball alone got him onto this list, but he will need to develop his game as a whole if he ever wants to see a major league inning.  Obviously, Mike Rizzo and company saw something in Karns that made them believe he was worth taking a late-round flier on, so we will wait and see what he does with his minor league squad this season.

12.  Evan Bronson (23, 2009/29th) - A 6'3 left-handed reliever with underwhelming stuff.  Bronson is a converted starter that is able to change the speeds of his pitches well, but has nothing that could overpower batters.  In 49.1 innings for Vermont last season he allowed only 3 ER and 3 BB while striking out 38.  He pitched well against righties and lefties and appears ready for some movement up the Nationals farm ladder.  Look for him to be fast-tracked if he continues to pitch this well for Hagerstown or Potomac.

13.  Brandon King (19, 2009/27th) - A late-round pick that the Nationals wisely payed over slot for ($100,000).  He was ranked as the 15th best draft prospect from the Mid-Atlantic region by Baseball America.  King is a 6'4 Righty that made a brief showing in the GCL last year after he signed.  8 games later, I had a very favorable opinion of the kid.  Let me just throw out some numbers from his GCL experiences:  2.97 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 7.99 K/9, 0.28 HR/9, 1.81 GO/FO.  What do they mean?  King pitched well, did not allow many walks or hits, struck out a good portion of the batters he faced, while keeping the ball low in the strikezone.  Should you start searching for Brandon King baseball cards?  No, not yet.  All his performance from last year means is that the Nationals took a good risk on signing King and that he will probably start next year in Class A Short Season.

14.  Jack McGeary (21, 2007/6th) - McGeary was considered a top draft talent back in 2007 whose stock fell because of a supposed strong commitment to Stanford.  The Nationals drafted him in the 6th round and ponied up $1.8 million to sign him.  As part of the deal, the Nationals allowed him to attend (and paid for) classes at Stanford and then join the team at their completion.  This past season was the first year in which McGeary focused solely on baseball.  Hype does not make a baseball player, though, and McGeary has largely been a bust for most of his time with Washington.  At times, it seems as though he has the makings of middle of the rotation starter, but then he goes out and can barely pitch against rookies.  His curveball is a plus pitch and it is a beauty.  He also has a fairly good change.  It is fastball with almost no life that is problematic and part of the reason batters have a field day off of him every few starts.  His control is horrendous at times and is reflected in his 6.62 BB/9 and 1.76 WHIP.  You are probably wondering why he even deserves to make a top prospect list.  His curve and change are major league pitches and with some work his fastball might not kill him on the mound.  He is excellent at inducing the ground ball (1.27 GO/FO this season, 2.22 GO/FO last season), is still quite young at 21, and pitched over 100 innings for the first time in his career last season.  The amount of money the Nationals threw at McGeary will provide him more opportunities than other less heralded picks, but this season is key for McGeary to prove that he was worth the 1.8 mil.

15.  Graham Hicks (20, 2008/4th) -  A tall (6'5) lefty that can throw some heat is an easy way for any scout to get excited.  Hicks was dominant against LHB (3.25 FIP/1.04 WHIP) this season with GCL/Vermont and had little problem pitching from the stretch.  His major issues came against RHB and with men on.  The first problem can be adjusted over time, the second seems more of a mental issue.  Overall, he did not put up eye-popping numbers, but there is a lot to like about this kid.  He kept the ball in the park last season (0.67 HR/9, 0 HR vs LHB).  He has a projectable body that will fill out some more, most likely resulting in some extra heat on his fastball (already around 91 MPH).  Add to this the fact that he was drafted with four pitches (fastball, slider, curve, change), two of which are already well-developed, and you have a pitcher that in all likelihood will experience somewhat of a breakout this season.

*  This list could have gone some different ways, especially in the 10-15 range.  Some other pitchers I considered:  Tom Milone, Josh Wilkie, Brad Peacock, Taylor Jordan, Erik Arnesen, and Josh Smoker